Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Daily Forecast – 21 May 2013 Natural Gas June contract Natural Gas did break above 4.097 to take us up towards 4.163. We did struggle in this area & make a high for the day exactly as predicted but if we push on today we could reach 4.230/250. We are overbought short term so exit longs & try shorts here with stops above 4.275. Failure to hold above yesterday’s low of 4.063 however meets good support at 4.034/015 & a low for the day possible here.

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Natural Gas, Gasoil, RBOB Gasoline

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Resistance: 1.0285 moderate/1.0330 minor/1.0364 minor Support: 1.0251 strong/1.0206 moderate/1.0172 minor USDCAD is generally bullish with the Bearish Harami occurring near a strong support level at 1.0251, the Pivot Point. As such it would be best to consider shorting only if we have a close below 1.0251 with a stop loss above the candlestick patterns high. Price target for any subsequent sell-off will be at 1.0206, possibly on to 1.0172 if the former gives way.

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USDCAD Bearish Harami 4-Hour Chart

Resistance: 1415.96 moderate/1438.43 minor/1477.45 minor Support: 1376.94 strong/1354.47 moderate/1315.45 minor XAUUSD is generally bullish with Hourly Dragonfly Doji (Bear) occurring near a strong support level at 1376.94, the Pivot Point. With the pivot directly beneath us a close under 1376.94 has to be seen before jumping short. The immediate object will be 1354.47 break of which suggest you have a tanking market with 1315.45 as its target. Stops should be placed above the Pivot Point or

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XAUUSD Dragonfly Doji (Bear) Hourly Chart

Resistance: 1.0275 minor Support: 1.0241 minor / 1.0217 moderate / 1.0183 strong Overall trend in USDCAD is bullish though charts appear to be overextend. We have a mid level bearish reversal pattern in 4-Hour charts, Bearish Engulfing suggesting a possible technical correction for 1.0241 with stops for any short above the pattern high. The prudent course of action is to remain sidelined. For pattern explanation and visual identification rules, click here.

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USDCAD Bearish Engulfing 4-Hour Chart

Market Review Friday’s session was focused on the consumer sentiment data from the US with the University of,Michigan number surprising to the upside to post its highest levels since before the credit crunch and add weight to the strong Retail Sales number announced at the start of the week. However, overall the macro news from the US was mixed during the week with some disappointing regional manufacturing numbers, housing data and jobless claims. This mixed news didn’t stop the S&P 500

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Crude oil suffered from the continued dollar strength

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Turkey: The CBRT lowered its rate by more than expected – TRY weakened and then strengthened again. We were ‘suspicious’ of the Turkish central bank already yesterday, and that was the very reason why we issued the very short-term recommendation to buy a 1-day EURTRY call option. But, but, but … later on Moody’s upgraded Turkey’s rating by a notch to Baa3. You cannot blame us for thinking that the time of announcement was not that ‘coincidental’ – somebody had extremely bad positions. Our

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Close AUDUSD recommendation EURPLN reached stop-profit

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Daily Forecast – 17 May 2013 Topix June contract Topix broke 1261 but only as far as 1265. It does look like we could be running out of steam for this week at least. Below 1237 we retest the low of the last 2 days at 1231/30 then better support at 1221/20. This could mark the low for the day so may be worth exiting any shorts but below here we could dip as far as 1206. Resistance at 1260/65 should hold a bounce but above here look for 1276 then 1286 as the next upside targets.

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Topix , Nikkei 225, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng, Hang Seng CE Index, USDJPY, Kospi

Market Review Another day, another record high for the S&P. Buying the dips has proven a successful strategy in recent weeks and yesterday was no exception. Poor growth data from the EU, which showed a sixth consecutive quarter of contraction, followed by poor industrial figures from the US, allowed our entry long at 1642.50 to be reached. This level turned out to be the exact low of the session as the S&P followed the recent trend, higher, hitting our first target at 15:30 followed by

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The EURUSD, crude and T-Notes are a little more subdued

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Review… Greece: Fitch has upgraded Greece from CCC to B- with stable outlook. The main argument behind the upgrade is that the economic development in Greece has stabilised. EURSEK: Weak inflation figures The surprisingly weak inflation figure from Sweden caused SEK to fall unexpectedly (-0.8%). The reason for the weakening is that the market now discounts a considerably higher probability that the Riksbank will announce an interest-rate change at the next interest-rate meeting (3 July). We

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Buy AUDJPY put option

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Market Review Yesterday’s session was controlled by the US Retail Sales data that was announced at 13.30pm London time and the news was surprisingly positive as activity on the high street in April grew by 0.1% compared to March and so dispelled the theory that the sequester cuts would put a squeeze on retail sales. As a result JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs upped their Q2 GDP forecasts which puts a measure on how significant this data was. Initially the dollar strengthened as we had anticipated

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The S&P had a mixed response to the data initially

Review… EURJPY: The BoJ and the government are happy about the weakening yet not with the volatility. Overnight the Japanese minister of economic affairs, Amari, stated that the government will cooperate with the BoJ in an attempt to reduce the fluctuations in the FX market. This means that Japan will not only try to control the direction of JPY but also fluctuations. This will take a very active central bank that must be active in the market all the time in respect of buying as well as

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Sell AUDUSD & Buy EURPLN

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