Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Review The US: As expected, the FOMC meeting was a non-event. In its interest-rate announcement, the Fed kept all doors open and emphasised that the programme of asset purchases can be expanded as well as reduced. As an initial reaction, USD weakened from 131.80 in EURUSD to 132.20. The US: ADP employment fell to 119,000 – against the estimate of 150,000. The ADP figures are often used as an indicator of the employment figures to be released tomorrow, and in that light, the figures contributed

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We resume our EURUSD sell recommendation despite event risks

Daily Forecast – 02 May 2013 E-Mini S&P June contract S&P retested the 1591/93 all time high but was unable to break 1597 & trigger stops. The new high at 1595.50 followed by a lower close formed a bearish reversal day to coincide with the bearish double top. We then collapsed to good support at 1579/77 & bounced nicely. Below here today however look for 1571/70. Here we should look oversold short term & could bottom out but longs need a stop below 1567 for a test of 1563

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E-Mini S&P, EURUSD, FTSE 100

Daily Forecast – 02 May 2013 E-Mini Dow Jones June contract Mini Dow failed at all time highs of 14800/823 & broke 14690 to test next support at 14636 which we expected to hold the downside so advised trying longs here. The exact low was 14626 & the bounce has so far taken us to 14675 & we could stretch to 14698 but unlikely any further. We need to be out of longs before we reach this level. Any shorts then need a stop above 14715 for 14751 & possibly a retest of 14790/823

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E-Mini Dow Jones

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Resistance: 1.3267 minor/1.3349 minor Support: 1.3217 moderate/1.3135 strong/1.3085 moderate EURUSD has a bullish bias with Three Outside Up in 4-Hour charts suggesting a further push higher. As a high level pattern aggressive buys may be taken with 1.3267 as the immediate objective break of which opens the possibility of a run to 1.3349. Stop losses ideally should be placed below 1.3217. Proximity to 1.3217 would be ideal. AUDUSD Three Inside Down Hourly Chart Resistance: 1.0338

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EURUSD Three Outside Up 4-Hour Chart

Market Review Yesterday was a tricky session in many ways as the US data releases brought conflicting information with the Chicago PMI number coming in at 49 which was the first dip below 50 since September 2009. But then just 15 minutes later the US Consumer Confidence number was announced at 68.1 which was much higher than the 61.0 that was expected. The S&P was trading around our long entry level just before the Chicago number and the index dipped below our level and found support at

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The Euro has continued to push higher this morning

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EURUSD Spot: 1st May 2013

Latest news… Europe and the ECB: Inflation data considerably lower than expected = interest-rate cut from the ECB? European inflation dived yesterday to 1.2% compared with the expected 1.6%. A significant misjudgement by the analysts. No matter what, the poor data support the likelihood that the ECB will tomorrow relax its monetary policy. 61% of the economists expect, cf. Bloomberg, that the ECB will cut its interest rates. In the money market, a likelihood of approx. 70% of an

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Fed is expected to be non-event, We focus on ECB

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD Last Update At 01 May 2013 01:14GMT Trend Daily Chart Sideways Daily Indicators Rising 21 HR EMA 1.5524 55 HR EMA 1.5500 Trend Hourly Chart Up Hourly Indicators Bearish divergences 13 HR RSI 60 14 HR DMI +ve Daily Analysis One more rise b4 retreat Resistance 1.5690 – Feb 13 top 1.5606 – 50% r of 1.6380-1.4832 1.5570 – Y’day’s high Support 1.5518 – Y’day’s European high 1.5467 – Y’day’s low 1.5418 – Last Fri’s low . GBP/USD – 1.5537… Although the British

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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD: May 1, 2013

Daily Forecast – 01 May 2013 Gasoil May contract Gasoil could remain under pressure today & below 843.50 risks a test of 841/840 then 830/828 support. If we continue lower we could retest 818/815 April lows but should look very oversold in the short term here so could hope for a bounce this week. Resistance is 843/844 but above here we could stretch to 853/854. We then run in to very tough resistance at 863.50/866.50 which could cap any moves higher this week.

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Gasoil, RBOB Gasoline

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Banks (especially those of the core countries) continue the repayment of liquidity to the ECB at a fairly high pace. We expect the pace to decelerate slightly. But if the pace continues, the liquidity surplus will fall to EUR 200bn already by July. If, on the other hand, the pace is reduced by 50%, the level will not be reached until October. So far, the money-market reaction has been modest, and the money-market curve remains quite flat. The reason for this is the new soft rhetoric from the

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Euro zone: Declining ECB liquidity – modest interest-rate

Review Sweden: The Riksbank offers no surprises. Retail sales disappointed. The Riksbank’s minutes of its monetary policy meeting did not reveal any major surprises yesterday. The committee was divided and the drastic lowering of the interest rate path was therefore a kind of compromise. In May two of the six members of the monetary-policy committee will be replaced. The two resigning members belong to each of the two wings (doves vs. hawks). It will be interesting to see who will replace the

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Stop/loss in EURUSD Taken Out. We still believe you should be short

Market Review Yesterday saw equities continue their positive mood with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after falling short of the record intra-day high by just three ticks. Positive US data in the shape of Pending Home sales and Consumer spending as well as the fact that Italy managed to form a coalition Government and so filled their two month political void. On top of there is a growing sense that the FOMC will continue will full speed QE and the ECB are going to role out some

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The ECB rate decision on Thursday afternoon

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Daily Forecast – 30 April 2013 EURUSD EURUSD holding resistance at 1.3120/40 but above here could allow another test of 1.3190/00 highs. Try shorts here, adding up to 1.3230 with stops above 1.3255. We are getting overbought now in the short term. Below 1.3090 therefore risks a return to 1.3030/25 support & the chance of a low for the day. A break lower could however target last week’s low at 1.2975/55.

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EURUSD, E-Mini S&P, E-Mini Dow Jones

Daily Forecast – 30 April 2013 Dax June contract Dax held above immediate support at 7816 & rocketed higher yet again to reach very strong resistance at 7930/40 which we suggested should be an excellent selling opportunity. We topped at 7933 in fact after an incredible 6.5% gain in just 5 days. We now look for profit taking to set in and a move back to 7875/65. Below here we could test good support at 7825/15. We look for a low for the day here to exit remaining shorts & perhaps try

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Dax, FTSE 100