Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Market Review A record sell off earlier in the week finally saw a break in yesterday’s session as Gold and the S&P both had some decent bounces off their lows. The S&P strategy entry worked well, though the 15 point target arguably was too optimistic, and in hindsight we should have used the pivot point which was a few points closer and was nicely obtained. Crude oil also had a nice bounce – the strategy entry was at the 4th March low, technically set up to be a very nice longer term

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The German ZEW data produced a disappointing 36.3

Daily Forecast – 17 April 2013 EURUSD EURUSD broke 1.3115/35 resistance which although unexpected should now target 1.3228. Watch for a high for the day here but any shorts need a stop above 1.3260 for 1.3320/40. This area should mark the end of the bounce & so should be worth attempting shorts with stops above 1.3380. Support is at 1.3138 then 1.3094. We expect buyers here to take the market higher but a break lower could then target 1.3028. Buy here with stops below 1.2975.

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EURUSD, XAUUSD Spot Gold, E-Mini Dow Jones June, Bund

Review The Fed: Evans and Dudley, who are both super doves, stated yesterday that the Fed must not close down open-ended QE too early. In their view, QE should continue at least until the end of the year. The Fed is much aware of unemployment in the US, and following Friday’s major Non-Farm-Payroll disappointment, the members are queueing up to offer the market a liquidity injection (QE). This is one of the reasons why EURUSD maintains the level or even rises. Our main scenario is still that

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Will the Riksbanken be a non-event?

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Market Review Our Strategy worked well yesterday as we were anticipating a continuation of the market movement from Friday’s session. A lower than expected Chinese Q1 GDP reading of 7.7% set a negative tone early on that shaped the whole session. The commodity space in particular took another hammering with crude shedding 2.8% following 2.3% downside on Friday. Brent crude dropped to $100 for the first time in 9 months. Gold stole the headlines however as fears that other peripheral Eurozone

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The S&P came under pressure through the session

Review China: The rating agency Moody’s maintains China’s rating at Aa3, but lowers its outlook from positive to stable. One reason for the change of outlook is the debt level in the regions and the lower growth. The US: The explosions at the Boston Marathon added to the risk aversion that right now is putting pressure on the financial market. The equity market: Several leading indices are beginning to cave in. We have seen declines of 1-3% over the past 24 hours. If the decline continues over

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Move S/P down for AUDUSD

Daily Forecast – 16 April 2013 XAUUSD Spot Gold Spot Gold in the longer term could now head for 1284 after this breakout. Yesterday we fell a lot further than expected to reach 1322. We have been in free fall now for 3 days losing about 15%. We are very over sold in the short term & have seen a good bounce but we meet resistance today at 1391. A push through here is possible & could then target 1428/34. Watch for a high for the bounce here with the longer term picture still looking

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XAUUSD Spot Gold, E-Mini Dow Jones, Natural Gas

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Daily Forecast – 16 April 2013 XAUUSD Spot Gold Spot Gold in the longer term could now head for 1284 after this breakout. Yesterday we fell a lot further than expected to reach 1322. We have been in free fall now for 3 days losing about 15%. We are very over sold in the short term & have seen a good bounce but we meet resistance today at 1391. A push through here is possible & could then target 1428/34. Watch for a high for the bounce here with the longer term picture still looking

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XAUUSD Spot Gold

Daily Forecast – 16 April 2013 Kospi June contract Kospi managed to hold on to 249.35/25 & today we have resistance at 254.04. We could hit selling pressure here but a break higher could then target 255.86, possibly 257.16. We can look for a high for the day here & perhaps could try shorts with a stop above 258. There is strong support at 249-247.80 & the market is over sold now. Watch for a good bounce from this level but longs need a stop below 246.50 as a break lower should keep

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Kospi, Nikkei 225

Market Review Last week we saw the Amplify US Strategy perform well, as on Friday our entry, target one and target two were hit. This made for perfect execution on four out of five days on the S&P, with the one outstanding day not entered due to the prudent execution price. Last week was a historic week across markets as the S&P 500 reached new all time highs and central bankers with free flowing support were seen to be in control of asset price valuations. Although not covered in the

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Inching above the 146 handle

Review China: GDP growth was a severe disappointment. Growth in China came out at 7.7% against the estimate of 8.0%. This was a great disappointment as recent PMI data from China have shown an increasing trend. The US: US consumer fell steeply. Consumer confidence fell to 72.3 against the estimate of 78.6. The level at 72.3 is the lowest since July last year. Are consumers at long last beginning to react to tax hikes, savings measures, etc.? The commodity market: Friday saw a severe decline.

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Drama in the commodity market affects currencies

Daily Forecast – 15 April 2013 Dax June contract Dax could be forming a bearish head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart as we warned on Friday. In the longer term this means a break of the neck line at 7630 would be a sell signal. For today below support at 7797/90 risks a slide to 7757 with better support below at 7729/24. Any longs here need a stop below 7715 for a move towards 7677 with a break below 7650 likely to lead to another test of 7618 lows. A break here should trigger stops

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Dax, Eurostoxx, XAUUSD Spot Gold, Bund

XAUUSD Three Outside Down Hourly Chart Resistance: 1538.51 minor/1545.91 minor/1553.54 moderate Support:

Resistance: 0.9308 strong/0.9338 moderate/0.9370 minor Support: 0.9277 moderate/0.9247 minor/0.9216 minor Dark Cloud Cover is just under the pivot point at 0.9308 in Hourly USDCHF charts. With a combination of a high level bearish pattern and a strong resistance consider shorting at market the immediate objective at 0.9277 break of which should see us move to 0.9247. Stop loss should be placed above 0.9308.

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USDCHF Dark Cloud Cover Hourly Chart

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