Author Archives: Trade Advantage
JDB: the gap in the SPX is close to complete…selling soon is risky but a good poss…little higher and one hour to Lon
JDB: sell may be little higher yet …but 30 now poss
JDB: Prob have to be BE or couple ticks over….cause the poss of higher still good lets see if it can get under 20….for poss brk prob any of these trades gonna be tough to hold onto…till later on…
JDB: 2125.25 agr sell working now…..first off at 2 and take 2nd at 4
JDB: bigger gaps are in the 35-40 range
JDB: gonna have to find our way here…a bigger decline may not come till later ” Dow Jones Industrial Average turns positive in morning trading, Wal-Mart a boost to the index”…how nice of Wal Mart
JDB: around 25 or maybe just over agr sell poss its risky after fri decline…they may need to unload a lot of stock…..and this is not the scenario we were looking for…but adapting to their usual mercurial nature…:)
JDB: good chance of a 2bpb for 20^……so bit choppy…and the bigger moves will be coming,,,20+ sell still working seems a bit of a lull into complacency here….the thinking with traders may be…that was enough on fri…and good rally now….not so sure about that…but this 24-25 is starting to look poss
JDB: any sells at or above 20 should be reduced…and now wait and see 13-14 poss if push to 25 doesnt happen
JDB: But we dont want to over trade…and the better ones usually reveal themselves…..we are looking for the higher probability of around a 2-5 start to any trade All pushes here over 2120 would be for agr sells….as stated little higher poss
JDB: For the moment I think the bigger move will be a pb…but little higher looming the div on this ^open is pretty defined….and the 2100 is enticing….. and fairly heavy opening vol
JDB: gaps on the upside in the 25 area I’m really surprised they would cause some confusion this AM:)
JDB: “Gundlach’s talk of a surprise Fed tightening set the stage for a stock, bond-market rout’…surprise?…lol would think after this open maybe see near 2100….or v……patience will be needed to figure this out
JDB: With no other “news’ to alibi Fridays decline… the exchange relied on the usual Fed news…which has dominated all activity for some time now- but no matter- there are shot positions to be covered and stock to be re-accumulated-life goes on
JDB: Good morning No reports today
http://trade-advantage.com/monday-sept-12/
Monday Sept 12
It is interesting to note, that on Friday, the 30 Dow stocks declined a total of 57.60 to contribute to the decline in the Dow average of 394.46. A 2.13% decline. The same relative percentages apply to the S and P 500 average also. The decline went on all day, with no real rebounds, and accelerated toward the end of the day, when volume increased dramatically as insiders began to cover their short positions in earnest and also began the process of re-accumulating stock which can then be sold out later at much higher prices. I had mentioned on last Thursday and in previous sessions, that it was most likely that exchange insiders would probably soon conduct a brief, but sharp decline, to cover the short positions held since the “Brexit” advance, and throughout the sideways summer action, where the advance was halted due to the short selling. I saw evidence of this in the Dow 30 components and the major S and P 500 stocks, which I had mentioned in my posts. The Brexit decline, which lasted two days, was on record volume in the S an P. This “necessitated” a rapid and very sharp advance, to unload the stock they acquired at the lows, to investors and traders, who will start buying heavily in , or to the end, of an accelerating advance. Stock was subsequently supplied short by insiders, which also halted the advance and this went on all summer. We are now in the beginning process of short covering and buying for what should ultimately be a new advance to record highs.
This Monday Am, it appears we will probably have a “gap” down open. A common scenario after Fridays decline, would see the market sharply down on high volume after the open and during the first part of trading then a decent rally to follow. Of course this would be for trading purposes, which we will be watching for today. If they decline the market all day today,and on increasing volume, then after that is complete, either today or possibly the next few days, then the advance would be of a more sustained nature. This would be a better scenario for new stock purchases for short and possibly longer term gains. It all depends on how much stock was sold short, during the Brexit advance and in the summer action.
After Fridays action, today and the coming week, and the coming weeks ahead should be quite interesting.


