Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Daily Forecast – 22nd March 2013 EURUSD EURUSD was held by 1.2890/80 support & also by 1.2970/80 resistance & this should be a struggle again today but above 1.2996 we can look for 1.3024/48. It should be worth attempting shorts here with a stop above 1.3085. We are hovering below 1.2955 now and if we cannot push up through the 1.2955/80 area we should see a drift back to 1.2890/80 & possibly as far as the low at 1.2855/45. We are looking for a bounce from here again today so can

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EURUSD, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, Dax, Eurostoxx, XAUUSD, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline

Forecast for 21st March 2013 SXF March contract S&P/TSX 60 Index opened above 730.50 to reach 734.67 & topped just above at 735.70. Above here today we could stretch to 737.10/36. Support at 732.70/732.20 but below here look for 730.50/729.70. Failure here risks a test of last week’s low at 727.20/00 & a break lower should see us hit our predicted 724.85/723.25 target. Any longs here need a stop below the Feb low at 722.30 for 718.40.

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SXF, Dax, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P,

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Dax (Jun13) Futures

Review: the BoE Minutes diffuses the “Carney effect”. The US: Fed chief without new aces up his sleeve. Yesterday’s announcement from the Fed did not offer any surprises. The same can be said about the subsequent comments by Bernanke, which still signal that the Fed will be prepared for some time to offer QE3 without any fixed expiry. The actual comment after the Fed meeting did, however, recognise the recent “signs of spring” in the economy and signalled early improvement of the job market.

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We recommend investors to BUY NOKSEK

1minute with ForexSurvivor Latest impact:

Daily Forecast – 21st March 2013 Bobl June contract Bobl failed at the 1 year trend line at 126.49/50 to test 126.20 which did hold again as hoped. Below 126.33 today another test of 126.20/18 is likely with more chance of a break & a gap to fill at 126.02 today. Watch for the bounce here but if we break 125.95 we could reach 125.80/77. Above 126.33 we run in to resistance at 126.41/46 but above here offers the chance to retest 126.63/66 highs. A push through here targets 126.79/80 then

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Bobl, Bund, 10 Year Gilt, Schatz

Resistance: 1.5184 moderate/1.5265 minor/1.5344 minor Support: 1.5105 strong/1.5024 moderate/1.4945 minor GBPUSD has a high credibility bullish pattern Piercing Line in Hourly charts. With prices just above a strong support 1.5105, the Pivot Point, aggressive buys may be taken with a stop loss just under the said price, or below the pattern low whichever is lower. Our price target will be 1.5184 break of which open us to a run for 1.5265 and a possible uptrend.

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GBPUSD Piercing Line Hourly Chart

Market Review Yesterday our strategy was based on the idea that the Cypriot Government would delay their deposit tax vote by another day and in the meantime we expected markets to remain stable. However, it was our alternative scenario that proved the correct prediction as the Cypriot Government did vote and they voted ‘no’. Rumours that this was going to happen just before 15.00pm London time and this triggered a risk off move across the asset classes. The S&P back towards Monday’s low

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December Markets reversed their risk-off move last night

The two most important news items today are: – that the Cypriot parliament rejected a levy on holders of bank accounts, which was otherwise negotiated by the EU, the ECB and the IMF; – that the ECB despite the deviation stands firm to guarantee liquidity to the Cypriot banks if they meet the solvency requirement (may soon be a major problem). With respect to Cyprus our macro-economists state: – there is now a need to make some fast decisions, and the banks will probably remain closed until an

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EURUSD lower on news of Cyprus

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USD/JPY Spot

Market Review Risk assets weathered the Cypriot storm in powerful show of defiance. Markets initially opened in panic mode as risks escalated with regards to the Eurozone violating their own deposit guarantee scheme by forcing a tax on deposits under €100,000 and therefore potentially threatening a run on the banks. However, as the European session got underway some powerful reversals came in and as the US cash markets opened our strategy view was based on the idea that the pullback had

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Risk assets weathered the Cypriot storm in powerful show of defiance high this morning

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GBPUSD Spot

Cyprus: Russia Intervened and Warned. Putin’s Anger on the Agenda. GBPUSD bullish engulfing week advocates a move towards 15210. Sterling$ was among few to no-gap-open the week, unlike others that were deeply affected by Cyprus-EU tax levy. When Russia Intervened, market price actions shaved losses and rushed to gap-close while sterling$ remain stable. The sterling OB indicators are unwinding in a conceiving way, probably to arrange a buy-dip @ 150 band. Consider buying 15000/14970 for 15210

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Sterling Did not Shrug @ Cyprus

Review: Agreement with Cyprus causes flight to safe haven Cyprus is in a tight spot as the country really needs the rescue package of EUR 10bn that the EU and the IMF has put together. Therefore, Cyprus has accepted a tax on deposits in its banking sector (final approval by the Cypriot parliament is, however, still pending). According to the agreement, a tax of 6.75% will be introduced for deposits below EUR 100,000, and higher deposits will be subject to a tax of 9.9%. The EU and the ECB has

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Agreement with Cyprus causes flight to safe haven

Market Review We had a long bias on Friday to follow the seemingly unstoppable climb higher but unfortunately the entry level was too aggressive given the macro news. The University of Michigan consumer confidence data came in at its lowest point since December 2011 and this led to the S&P dipping to test trend support at 1549 and so stopping out eh strategy. The index then staged yet another resilient bounce as bank stocks in particular out [performed following the Fed’s stress test

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Cleary the focus to day is squarely on Cyprus