Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Forecast for 11th March 2013 Eurostoxx March contract EuroStoxx broke 2701/05 to hit the 2729/31 target & over ran slightly to 2735. A push through here this week should test the years high so far at 2755. This is unlikely to be easy to beat with the market now very overbought in the short term. Watch for a pullback from here but if we do break higher look for 2767 then 2783 with 2799 likely to be achieved before we hit selling pressure. Support at 2708/03 then 2693 should hold any profit

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Eurostoxx

Market Review – 09/03/2013

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We expected the data ECB rate announcement yesterday to be unchanged and the press conference that follows to be doveish. We were correct on half of it. Mario Draghi was in a great mood, made jokes, and was more bullish on the market than any of our analysts had expected. It was however difficult trading the S&P; not because the moves were wide and would take ou t stops, rather the lack of moves proved to be challenging and we largely traded in a 7 tick

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The strategy entry for yesterday was short

Forecast for 8th March 2013 XAU Spot Gold Spot Gold holding support at 1569/67 & 1587/88 resistance. Below 1579 we could now test support at 1569/67 again today & a break below 1565 could signal a retest of February lows at 1555. We will need to hold above 1579/80 for another test of 1587/88 resistance. This could hold the top of the market again today but if we start to push higher look for 1595 with 1605/09 the target above.

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XAU Spot Gold, WTI Light Crude, Brent Crude, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline

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DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK – 1.0272

USDJPY Three Outside Up 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 94.84 minor/95.57 minor Support: 94.45 moderate/93.72 strong / 93.33 moderate USDJPY has a bullish bias with Three Outside Up in 4-Hour charts suggesting a further push higher. As a high level pattern aggressive buys may be taken with 94.84 as the immediate objective break of which opens the possibility of a run to 95.57. Stop losses ideally should be placed below 94.45. Proximity to 94.45 would be ideal.

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The first part of yesterday’s session saw an extension to Tuesday’s impressive upside with the final push to post the highs at 1544.75 following the impressive ADP Employment data that came in at 198k.. As the US session wore on however the index began drifting lower off some inevitable profit taking and our long entry level was hit just after the European close and perfectly defined the low of eth US session. 1544.25 was our first target and this was

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The first part of yesterday’s session

Forecast for 7th March 2013 Gasoil ICE March contract Gasoil looks to have made a low for this 3 week correction as predicted. We have broken Friday’s high of 930 to test Fibonacci resistance at 934.25 as hoped where we expected a high at this stage. 935 has held the move & we are testing support at 926 but below here could see 921 trade. If this does not hold we risk another test of 917/915 lows which is expected to hold again today if tested. However if we do break lower look for 911.75.

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Gasoil ICE, RBOB Gasoline, Brent Crude

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Review: NBP surprised everyone and lowered interest rates to 50bp USA: Good ADP employment numbers and better-than-expected industrial orders As mentioned in yesterday’s comment, good key performance indicators are USD-positive (especially when they are related to the job market). Yesterday was no exception. An ADP employment of 198T against an expected number of 170T supplemented by good signals in the Beige Book resulted in a strengthened USD. EURUSD broke once again 130 and closed below.

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Monetary policy meeting the ECB and the Bank of England is the highlights of the week

Resistance: 0.9515 moderate / 0.9545 minor / 0.9601 minor Support: 0.9459 strong / 0.9429 moderate / 0.9373 minor USDCHF has a high credibility bullish pattern Three Outside Up in 4-Hour charts. With prices just above a strong support 0.9459, the Pivot Point, aggressive buys may be taken with a stop loss just under the said price, or below the pattern low whichever is lower. Our price target will be 0.9515 break of which open us to a run for 0.9545 and a possible uptrend.

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USDCHF Three Outside Up 4-Hour Chart

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The equity index continued to edge higher for its third consecutive day on a correlation move with the Dow which made a new all time high yesterday, breaching the high set before the financial crisis back in 2007 – and of note one analyst even nicknamed it the new ‘safe haven’. The main data yesterday was US ISM Non-Manufacturing which posted a better than expected reading forth month in a row. The strategy entry was located at the high of last week and

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The US data was better than expected

Forecast for 6th March 2013 Natural Gas April contract Natural Gas broke 3.554 as predicted to hit out next target & tough resistance at 3.592/613. As expected this has held the move & we could expect a move back to support at 3.483. Watch for a bounce from here but if wee break lower we could expect to test the next support level at 3.415/3.400. This should provide a floor for today. Tough resistance at 3.592/613 should hold any move higher again today. However a break above 3.645

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Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline, Gasoil ICE