Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Resistance: 94.34 minor/94.82 minor Support: 93.73 moderate/93.25 strong/92.64 moderate We have a high credibility bearish reversal pattern, Evening Star (Doji) in Hourly USDJPY charts. With market in a bullish bias and prices under a minor resistance look for a technical correction with stops just over 94.34 the immediate objective is 93.73 a moderate support break of which sees 93.25, the daily Pivot Point. Learn more about the chart patterns and how to recognize them in our Learning Center:

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USDJPY Evening Star (Doji) Hourly Chart

WEEKLY OUTLOOK AUD/USD – 1.0273 25 Feb 2013

USDCHF Bullish Engulfing 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 0.9338 moderate / 0.9369 minor / 0.9405 minor Support: 0.9302 strong / 0.9271 moderate / 0.9235 minor We have a medium credibility pattern Bullish Engulfing in 4-Hour charts. Though ideally this needs a confirmation before trading, with prices just above a strong support consider buys off 0.9302, the Pivot Point. Stop losses can be placed just under the said price or alternatively the pattern low if beneath the Pivot Point. For pattern

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USDCHF Bullish Engulfing 4-Hour Chart

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We had a bearish strategy yesterday to reflect the technical and fundamental picture which suddenly turned heavily negative on Wednesday evening after the FOMC minutes were released. Our short entry level at 1506.50 was spot on with the high of the afternoon being one tick above here. From there the S&P trended lower for the majority of the US session and bottomed out 2 ticks above our second profit target at 1494.50. Strategy We go into the final

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We were guilty of being too aggressive yesterday

Forecast for 22nd February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD broke the 7 month uptrend line support at 1.3245 for a test of 1.3187/83 Fibonacci support & bounced just below at 1.3161. Today we expect a recovery with targets of 1.3246 & then 1.3295/1.3310. This is tough resistance & may cap the bounce. However if we see further strength look for 1.3370/80 which we see as a very good selling opportunity with a stop above 1.3440. Support at 1.3180/60. Again a chance of a bounce but a break lower

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Spot Euro, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, Spot USDJPY, Dax, E-Mini S&P

Investment case (spot ref.: 113.15) We recommend investors to BUY 6M NOKSEK call option, strike 113.15. To be financed by selling double 6M put options, strike 110.50. At entering, the overall strategy is zero cost/free. – The call-option may be sold off during the investment period. – If NOK/SEK is in six months below 110.50, investors may extend the investment via a forward contract. 40-year uptrend is no coincidence In general, Norway has over the past 40 years reported stronger economic

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BUY NOKSEK option strategy

Commodities: After extensive sales on Wednesday, commodities regained a bit of positive momentum yesterday. A clear signal that the movement is not fundamentally based. On the other hand, it has also been indicated that investors are ready to close the positions – they are not certain of the upturn. Europe: PMIs disappointed markedly and sent down risky assets. A general improvement of the European PMIs was expected yesterday. But the expectations were not met – on the contrary. PMI data for

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Further momentum to correction

1minute with ForexSurvivor

Resistance: 1.0286 strong/1.0336 moderate/1.0416 minor Support: 1.0206 moderate/1.0156 minor/1.0076 minor High Wave Doji (Bear) is just under the pivot point in AUDUSD 4-Hour charts, a moderate bearish pattern below a strong resistance. Given proximity to 1.0286, we can consider shorts under the said price with stops placed above the Pivot Point for a low risk-high reward trade. Immediate objective is 1.0206 then on to 1.0156 break of which gives us a run on the market. Learn more about the

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AUDUSD High Wave Doji (Bear) 4-Hour Chart

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We had a long preference for yesterday’ session looking for a continuation of the extended grind higher but we were the victims of the FOMC minutes delivering surprisingly hawkish information that triggered a ‘QE-Off’ trade. The minutes of January’s FOMC meeting released last night at 19.00GMT contained the sentence: ’Many officials were concerned about the costs and risks of further asset purchases, as the Fed buys securities at a pace of $85bln a month.

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We had a long preference for yesterday’ session

Forecast for 21st February 2013 Gasoil ICE March contract Gasoil broke lower as predicted to hit 991/989 support with an exact low at 990. We are building downside momentum now & we could expect prices to continue lower today. A break of 989 targets 981/979 which could offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here. Any bounce is seen as a selling opportunity with 998/999 likely to cap. Above here however 1001/1002 and 1006/07 offer further tough

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Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline, XAU Spot Gold

1minute with ForexSurvivor

Resistance: 0.8384 strong / 0.8441 moderate / 0.8527 minor Support: 0.8299 moderate / 0.8242 minor / 0.8156 minor NZDUSD has a bearish bias though Hourly charts has formed a bullish reversal pattern Morning Star (Doji). With a strong resistance at 0.8384, the Pivot Point, just ahead of the pattern the preferred course of action is to wait for a push past 0.8384 before buying. Immediate target is 0.8441 then on to 0.8527. Stops should be placed below the patterns low. For pattern explanation

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NZDUSD Morning Star (Doji) Hourly Chart

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Yesterday’s the E-mini S&P had a key break out above last week’s double top at 1522 following bullish cash open. Stop orders were triggered above this level that accelerated the move higher in what was a technical extension to this phenomenally sustainable rally that has been on-going all year. German ZEW economic confidence numbers were much better than expected that meant the positive sentiment remained in charge. Our long entry level was not obtained

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Yesterday we had a long entry at 1.3325 which was Monday’s low

Forecast for 20th February 2013 Brent calendar spreads j3-k3 support 86/85 then 80/79 could hold again today but a break targets trend line support at 76/75. Below here 70 is a buying opportunity. Resistance at 90 then 94/95 highs. A break targets 99/100. k3-m3 support 77/76 then 72/71. Below here 67 then 63 a good chance for longs. Resistance 80 then 84/85 highs. m3-n3 support 74 then 70/69. 78 resistance then 82 highs. A break targets 85/86. Brent calendar spread n3-q3 resistance 77/78 then

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Brent, Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline

Forecast for 21st February 2013 Spot USDJPY USDJPY managed a bounce to resistance at 93.75 but not much further as anticipated. The 93.75/94.00 area could hold any bounce again today with the outlook remaining quite negative. However above 94.00 we may retest this week’s high at 94.22. Doubtful we can push any higher but a test of 94.40/46 highs should provide a very nice selling opportunity. Further weakness is expected eventually for a test of good support at 93.00/90. This could provide a

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Spot USDJPY, Nikkei, Topix, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng

Forecast for 20th February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD held above 1.3310/00 & with daily charts becoming over sold we broke above1.3390/3400 to hit the next target of 1.3438 & topped out here. We have the momentum to continue higher today though & reach 1.3450/60 for selling opportunity with a top here expected. We can exit longs here & try shorts with a stop above 1.3480 for the next target of 1.3510/20. Good support today at 1.3388/78 if we drift lower so we can try longs here with

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Spot Euro, Eurostoxx, DJIA, Dax, E-Mini S&P, FTSE 100

Resistance: 0.9230 strong/0.9244 moderate/0.9264 minor Support: 0.9210 moderate/0.9196 minor/0.9176 minor USDCHF has a bearish bias though Hourly charts has formed a bullish reversal pattern Three Outside Up. With a strong resistance at 0.9230, the Pivot Point, just ahead of the pattern the preferred course of action is to wait for a push past 0.9230 before buying. Immediate target is 0.9244 then on to 0.9264. Stops should be placed below the patterns low. Learn more about the chart patterns

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USDCHF Three Outside Up Hourly Chart