Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Forecast for 19th February 2013 Spot USDJPY USDJPY retested resistance at 93.90/94.05 but stretched to 94.22. This could hold again today & we may hover below this point today as we build a medium term topping pattern. Only just above here we hit 94.36/46 highs for the bull run where we can try shorts looking for a top as daily & shorter term charts are calling for a move back to 92.30/15. Stop needed above 94.55 however, to target 2010 highs at 94.80/94.99. If this does not hold us

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Spot USDJPY, Kospi, Nikkei, Topix, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng

Resistance: 1.0338 minor / 1.0361 minor Support: 1.0321 moderate / 1.0298 strong / 1.0281 moderate AUDUSD has a bullish bias with Three Outside Up in Hourly charts suggesting a further push higher. As a high level pattern aggressive buys may be taken with 1.0338 as the immediate objective break of which opens the possibility of a run to 1.0361. Stop losses ideally should be placed below 1.0321. Proximity to 1.0321 would be ideal. For pattern explanation and visual identification rules, click

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AUDUSD Three Outside Up Hourly Chart

Forecast for 18th February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD fell to test very good support at 1.3320/10 where we predicted a low for the week. This worked perfectly with a low at 1.3306 & a bounce back to resistance at 1.3377 which is exactly where we topped out. 1.3320/10 could be tested again today. The support has been weakened but there is still a chance of another bounce. However stops on any longs are needed below 1.3285 & sell back in to shorts for a test of trend line support at 1.3220.

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Spot Euro, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, DJIA

Review: G20 was a flop G20 meeting: As expected, the G20 meeting this weekend was a spell of ‘hot air’. G20 (read more) did not send a signal to Japan about inappropriate rhetoric in terms of monetary policy or similar – just like the announcement from G7 earlier in the week. There is no doubt that conversations have been made behind closed doors, expressing more concern about the Japanese monetary policy than the final G20-comment. Will the JPY-depreciation reach new highs? No, we still do

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G20 was a flop

Forecast for 18th February 2013 Spot USDJPY USDJPY traded down to our predicted low to the correction at 92.20/05 & an opportunity to exit shorts & buy longs stopping below 91.80. This worked perfectly with a low at 92.23 & we shot higher holding resistance at 93.90/94.05. This could hold again today & we may hover below this point for a day or two as we build a medium term topping pattern. However be aware that a break higher could target the 94.36/46 highs. We can try shorts

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Spot USDJPY, Dax

Review: Poor European growth figures caused unrest in Europe Europe: The European growth figures were disappointing reading. Overall, GDP declined by 0.6% in Q4 (estimate: -0.4%). We saw disappointments across the board. The worst performer was the Italian GDP that declined by no less than 0.9% in Q4 and thus by 2.9% for full-2012. If we look at the Italian GDP in EUR, 12 years’ Italian growth has been squandered! We have to go back to the year 2000 to find a total Italian GDP corresponding to

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G20 focus – looks like a non-event

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We had a neutral short strategy yesterday that worked by the skin of our teeth. The bid tone in the S&P triggered by the better than expected Initial Jobless claims took the index up to test our short entry level at 1515. Prior to this the sentiment had been negative given the worse than expected GDP data from the Eurozone. So the Initial Jobless claims created some brief respite and our short entry worked perfectly as the market then dipped and hit our

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The Heinz share price jumped 20% to match Buffet’s bid price

Forecast for 15th February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY hovering above 92.95/85 support& below resistance at 93.90/94.05. Watch for a high for the day here but go with a break higher looking for the 94.46 highs to be tested. If we then break above 94.50 we should continue with the highs of 2010 at 94.80/94.99 likely to be tested. If this does not hold us back look for 95.29. Support remains at 92.95/85 but below here risks further profit taking down to 92.20/05. We can use this as an

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Spot USDJPY, Dax, Eurostoxx, Spot Euro, E-Mini S&P

Resistance: 1.3377 strong/1.3440 moderate/1.3518 minor Support: 1.3300 moderate/1.3237 minor/1.3159 minor EURUSD has a bias for the sell-side. 4-Hour charts also have a Bearish Engulfing confirming market direction though proximity to a moderate support at 1.3300 suggests we should wait for a close below it before jumping short. The immediate target of any sell-off is 1.3237 break of which sees 1.3159.

Forecast for 15th February 2013 FTSE 100 March contract FTSE backed away to good support at 6290/85 which did just hold the downside as hoped from a little lower at 6277. A break below 6270 is looking more likely today for a buying opportunity at 6246/40. This should hold the low today so expect a bounce but be ready to stop out below 6225 for 6214. Resistance at 6318 then Wednesday’s high of 6359/62 should hold again but any shorts here need a stop above 6370 for a 6396 target. Exit longs

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FTSE 100, Gasoil ICE, RBOB Gasoline, XAU Spot Gold, DJIA

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Resistance: 93.33 strong/93.83 moderate/94.29 minor Support: 92.87 moderate/92.37 minor/91.92 minor Bearish Engulfing is just under the pivot point in USDJPY 4-Hour charts, a moderate bearish pattern below a strong resistance. Given proximity to 93.33, we can consider shorts under the said price with stops placed above the Pivot Point for a low risk-high reward trade. Immediate objective is 92.87 then on to 92.37 break of which gives us a run on the market.

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review All three days this week our neutral long strategy has worked well as global equities continue their slow, low volume grind higher. Yesterday our long entry at 1514.50 was tested just after the European close and perfectly halted the slide. However, the rebound was exceptionally slow and it took the S&P two hours to drift up to test our first target which was a very modest five points higher. Our first target at 1519 capped the upside before a choppy

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The commodity was in a bid tone yesterday morning

Forecast for 15th February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY hovering above 92.95/85 support& below resistance at 93.90/94.05. Watch for a high for the day here but go with a break higher looking for the 94.46 highs to be tested. If we then break above 94.50 we should continue with the highs of 2010 at 94.80/94.99 likely to be tested. If this does not hold us back look for 95.29. Support remains at 92.95/85 but below here risks further profit taking down to 92.20/05. We can use this as an

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Spot USDJPY, Nikkei, Topix , FTSE China A50, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, Kospi

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Review: The Riksbank kept its rate unchanged. Sweden: Unchanged rate announced by the Riksbank and surprisingly tough rhetoric. We must say that the Riksbank surprised us. We did expect that the Riksbank would keep its interest rate unchanged, but we also expected that it would attempt to send ‘soft’ rhetorical signals in order to avoid appreciation of SEK. This did not turn out to be the case – rather on the contrary. In a subsequent comment, Central Bank Governor Ingves stated that SEK is at

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We recommend a buy order for GBPSEK

Forecast for 14th February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY eased back to 93.05/92.95 for our buying opportunity & we bottomed just below at 92.83. We are moving higher again as hoped but should run in to resistance at 93.90/94.05. Watch for a high for the day here but go with a break higher looking for the 94.46 highs to be tested. If we then break above 94.50 we should continue with the highs of 2010 at 94.80/94.99 likely to be tested. If this does not hold us back look for 95.29. Support

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Spot USDJPY, Bund, Eurostoxx, RBOB Gasoline, XAU Spot Gold

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The same strategy worked well again yesterday as the index continues with this theme of very mild positivity with small additions to the pervious day’s highs. The 1511 area continues to be strong technical support and yesterday afternoon this was our long entry level with the market turning higher after some weakness following the US open. It was a slow and low volume day again as the new flow was slow. The headlines were dominated with currency war

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The same strategy worked well again yesterday