Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Forecast for 8th February 2013 Natural Gas March contract Nat Gas fell just short of the 3.478 target which we saw as a good selling opportunity. We have fallen sharply through all support to test 3.265/258. We should see a bounce off here today & could head back to 3.387 resistance. However a break below 3.240 then keeps the market under pressure for a test of last week’s low at 3.207.

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Natural Gas, Gasoil ICE

Forecast for 8th February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD held resistance at 1.3540/60 as predicted but then broke support at 1.3465/55 to hit 1.3375 which we saw as a good buying opportunity with strong support. The low was in fact 1.3371 so this trade has worked perfectly as we look for resistance at 1.3451. We can take profit here in case of a move back to 1.3375/70 support but be ready to buy back in to longs no a break higher looking for 1.3501. We can probably go no further today but if we push

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Spot Euro, Spot USDJPY, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, Dax, DJIA, Eurostoxx

Forecast for 8th February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY has backed away from 93.99 major long term yearly resistance as predicted and already hit our first target of 93.15/05 but we could continue lower to better support at 92.58/45 before the end of the week. We could see a low here but a break could then see 91.96 before better support at 91.46. 93.99/94.07 should remain tough resistance and should hold on a retest. If however we break above 94.25 then the bull markets should continue with the

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Spot USDJPY, Topix , FTSE China A50, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, Kospi, Nikkei

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Our strategy short yesterday was filled at 16:00 GMT as the market retraced the morning’s move lower. Although the S&P pushed through the entry, we soon saw a retracement lower again in choppy market action as a low of 1501.50 was reached at 18:30. The appetite for long positions in the leading index in the US perhaps represents the fact that many traders and investors feel as though they have missed the significant rally seen over the last 2 months,

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The risk off sentiment across markets was firm yesterday

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Our strategy short yesterday was filled at 16:00 GMT as the market retraced the morning’s move lower. Although the S&P pushed through the entry, we soon saw a retracement lower again in choppy market action as a low of 1501.50 was reached at 18:30. The appetite for long positions in the leading index in the US perhaps represents the fact that many traders and investors feel as though they have missed the significant rally seen over the last 2 months,

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The risk off sentiment across markets was firm yesterday

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Review: Eventful day ahead Currency war: Yesterday, German, English and French politicians complained in the media about the ‘high’ rate of the euro. Even though the politicians would like to put pressure on the ECB to decide whether the euro is too strong in relation to the trade partners, we assess that the euro is far from being so strong that the ECB begins to intervene in order to put downward pressure on the rate of euro. Inflation and liquidity are the primary driving forces to the ECB.

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Eventful day ahead

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The Eurostoxx drifted lower throughout yesterday’s session and finished the day with a loss of 0.64%. Following the phase of committed downside momentum in Monday’s session, we viewed Tuesday as a test for the bears – i.e. would the selling pressure seen in Monday’s trade gain committed continuation following the first major retracement. Tuesday’s session entailed a retracement of approximately 50% of Monday’s losses and the downside momentum ensued early

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The Eurostoxx drifted lower throughout yesterday’s session

Forecast for 7th February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD held Tuesday’s high of 1.3598 as we look for a test of good support at 1.3465/55 today & this could hold the downside. However longs need a stop below 1.3425 for 1.3375 and again this should be seen as a good buying opportunity with strong support. Resistance at 1.3540/60 could cap today with the daily picture calling for further profit taking but a break higher hits 1.3596/98 with further tough resistance at 1.3615. It should be worth at-

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Spot Euro, E-Mini S&P, Dax, DJIA, FTSE 100, XAU Spot Gold, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Yesterday strategy was spot on as the afternoon’s low came just a couple of ticks above our long entry point and so the slightly more aggressive positioning of buy orders were picked up before the index pushed higher after the US cash open and hit our first [profit target at 1506. The upside was capped here until Obama spoke about the impending spending cuts and his statement that he urging Congress should pass a small spending bill to avoid the Sequester

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There was an initial bid tone in WTI yesterday

Forecast for 7th February 2013 Topix March contract Topix hit the 966 target and continued higher to 973.5 in an unstoppable bull market. We are now approaching what should be tough resistance at 2011 highs of 976.50. However major historic levels seem to mean nothing at the moment and so if we break above here look for May 2010 highs at 988 then what should be a big barrier with the high for 2010 at 999/1003. Support seen at 951 then 937 could hold any selling pressure. If this fails there is

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Topix, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, Spot USDJPY, Kospi , Nikkei, XAU Spot Gold

Review: investors strike back (correction comes to nothing) Currency war: as mentioned in our latest issue of Spot On, we expect a currency war to be one of the major market themes in 2013. The Japanese can primarily be blamed for this. Not because their very relaxed monetary policy is a particularly new measure (a measure taken by others), but simply because their policy is successful. Other countries will watch with envy and the rhetoric is already much more verbal than it has been for many

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Recommend buying GBPSEK

Forecast for 6th February 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD bounced from very good support at 1.3465/55 and our buying opportunity. Resistance at 1.3540/60 did cap for most of the day but we broke higher eventually but have further tough resistance today at 1.3615. It should be worth attempting shorts here with a stop above 1.3660 as a break higher could lead us back to 1.3700/711 highs. Support at 1.3560/50 but below here 1.3520/10 should be seen. Good support below again at 1.3465/55 could hold the

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Spot Euro, SXF, Dax, DJIA, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P

Forecast for 6th February 2013 XAU Spot Gold Spot Gold has been directionless, holding last Thursday’s range of 1684.05 down to 1658.01. We have some support today from the 9 day moving average and yesterday’s low at 1667.25/1666.85 but below here we should test short term Fibonacci and 200 day moving average support at 1666.60. Any longs here need a stop below Monday’s low of 1662 for 1660/58. The over night high is 1675.10/15 and above here look for 1677.00/75 but a push through here can

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XAU Spot Gold, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas

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