Author Archives: Trade Advantage

DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK – 1.0405 01 Feb 2013 02:08GMT… As A$’s has retreated again after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.0446 n intra-day downside bias remains to re-test y’day’s 1.0380 low, break wud extend weakness marginally but sup 1.0345 wud hold n yield rebound due to loss of momentum. In view of present downside risk, exit long as only abv 1.0446/52 brings further gain to 1.0477. STRATEGY :

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The Eurostoxx continued with Wednesday’s downward trajectory yesterday and finished the session with a loss of 1.14% having printed new lows for the week. Our yesterday’s strategy entry long at 2,717 was stopped out. It is worth to note that this week entailed the first persistent phase of downside this year for the index since the formation of the double top at last Friday’s high which might be indicative of exhaustion in buying pressure but could equally

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The Bund opened higher yesterday

Forecast for 1st February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY has now beaten 91.48 resistance to continue the 4 month bull run and hit our next target of 92.08/12. Time for a history lesson now. The USDJYP was on a roller coaster ride through the 1990’s, plunging in the first half of the decade and recovering most of the losses in the second half, to peak in 1998 at 147.66. A 13 year bear market followed which saw prices bottom at 75.35. Why does this matter today of all days? Because the first

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Spot USDJPY

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S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Yesterday was an interesting session as the US Q4 GDP reading came in at an eyebrow raising -0.1%. This unexpected contraction has been entirely attributed to defence spending cuts and lower business inventories with perhaps a hint of Hurricane Sandy thrown in there as well. Underlying this headline number was a promisingly strong Personal Consumption growth of 2.2%. The S&P spiked lower initially following the headline print but the index quickly

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The currency pair was initially bullish yesterday

Review: Negative growth in the US The US: negative growth comes as a surprise And – oops – yesterday the headline was: Steep decline in consumer confidence. These are certainly not encouraging headlines. However, most economists nevertheless point out that the declines are only of a temporary nature. And what a relief! The reason for the lagging consumer confidence is that since the turn of the year, the Americans’ take-home pay has fallen by 2%. The reason for the decline in growth was in

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EURUSD hits strong level of resistance

Forecast for 1st February 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY fell just a fraction short of our next target of 91.48 which we expected to trigger some profit taking. We should now test support at 90.62 with the chance of a low for the day here but a break lower is a possibility and should then target 90.13. This should be a buying opportunity today with a bounce expected but stops needed on longs below 89.70. 91.41/48 is resistance today of course but if we break higher to continue the 4 month bull

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Spot USDJPY, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, Kospi, Nikkei, Topix, FTSE China A50

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The Eurostoxx started yesterday’s session by testing the high of the week, at which point the weak upside momentum failed, giving way to an extended, albeit slow sell-off. The index printed new lows for the week and closed the session on the lows with a loss of 0.69%. Our yesterday’s strategy aimed to enter at a potential formation of a double bottom at Wednesday’s low. However, the persistent downside momentum led to the strategy being stopped out. The

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EUR/USD yesterday following the early morning breach of the 1.35 handle

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Forecast for 31st January 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD burst through major long term resistance at 1.3479/91 and the 200 week moving average at 1.3529 which was completely unexpected. The close above this level now opens the door to 1.3609/14 then 1.3653 and possibly 1.3690 above is achievable this week. We are of course very over bought but this is being ignored. Any drift lower finds support at 1.3516 but below here we may see 1.3471 with strong support at 1.3448/435 likely to provide a floor if we

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Spot Euro, E-Mini S&P, Dax, DJIA, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas

Review: Risky assets slightly into positive territory The US: Steep decline in consumer confidence. Consumer confidence fell markedly to 58.6; estimate: 64.0 (last time: 66.7). The decline can be attributed to the 2% decline in income that the Americans are facing in 2013. The 2% has been appropriated for the federal government’s pension scheme. Generally, negative US economic indicators will currently have a negative impact on USD. The reason is that negative economic indicators increase the

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EURUSD breaks out from 135! Maybe further EUR appreciation in the offing?

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We were guilty of favouring the technical picture yesterday as we implemented a short strategy given that the two week uptrend line had been breached and we felt the phenomenally extended upside seen in recent weeks was due a pull back. In truth, we couldn’t have been more wrong! When the Consumer Confidence number was released at 15.00GMT and showed the worst reading since Nov 2011 our short bias did not seem to be wrong after all. However, the index

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The currency pair was initially going down yesterday

Forecast for 31st January 2013 Spot USDJPY The USDJPY should be on the way to 91.48 as the next target. This may trigger some profit taking so watch for a pull back but it is not wise to fight the trend, so if we break higher to continue the 4 month bull run, look for 92.08/12. Support today for any weakness seen at 90.55 then 90.07

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Spot USDJPY, Hang Seng, Kospi, Nikkei, Topix, Hang Seng CE Index, FTSE China A50

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The short-term distribution which formed during Monday’s session at the highs of the week gave way for a markdown move in the Eurostoxx at yesterday’s European open, bringing the index to make new lows for the week. However, the phase of downside for the index turned out to be short-lived and the latter part of the session was devoted to paring most of the day’s losses, with the index closing the session with a loss of just 0.11%. Our yesterday’s entry

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The short-term distribution which formed during Monday’s

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD Last Update At 30 Jan 2013 01:11GMT Trend Daily Chart Down Daily Indicators Rising fm o/s 21 HR EMA 1.5741 55 HR EMA 1.5743 Trend Hourly Chart Sideways Hourly Indicators Rising 13 HR RSI 56 14 HR DMI +ve Daily Analysis Consolidation with a neutral bias Resistance 1.5852 – Last Thur’s high 1.5827 – Last Fri’s high 1.5774 – Y’day’s high Support 1.5712 – NY low 1.5674 – Mon’s low 1.5654 – 1.618 ext. of 1.6380-1.5992 fm 1.6182 GBP/USD – 1.5756.. The British pound

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GBP/USD Daily Technical Outlook: January 30, 2013