Author Archives: Trading Advantage

The cross-currents of the global economy leave the world’s central banks confronting varied policy choices in the months ahead. The U.S. and U.K. recoveries finally have enough momentum for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to anticipate raising raise short-term interest rates from record lows…

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Global Central Banking in 2014, a Third Quarter Update for 25 Economies

The US Federal Reserve has emphasized that its monetary policy will be determined by what economic indicators show. But it would require some extremely unlikely data to change the Fed’s implicit plan to end its purchases of long-term assets (so-called quantitative easing) in October 2014 and to…

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Why the Fed Will Go Faster

If you are one of the 50% of Americans who have money in the stock market, you probably wanted to reach for Benadryl at some point this month. The “September stock slump” came back with a vengeance in 2014. The S&P 500 finished the month down over 1.5%, its worst performance since January. The N…

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‘September slump’ strikes again

Bank of America Merrill Lynch remains a USD bulls noticing that yesterday’s short-term signs of USD stalling failed to materialize. Indeed, BofA thinks that as EUR/USD has fallen sharply, it is now on track to test the confluence of long-term support at 1.2470/1.2450. “This has been a pivo…

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EUR/USD: Into L/T Pivot; USD/JPY: Above 12yr T/Line Resistance – BofA Merrill

With the ECB meeting and US jobs data the key events of the week, it is understandable the August US trade balance, due out Friday, is not drawing much attention. However, the combination of the growth differentials, favoring the US, and the strong dollar lead to some concerns that trade will act…

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Trade and the Impact of the Stronger Dollar

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against two individuals for insider trading on a prominent hedge fund manager’s announcement that his hedge fund had formed a negative view of Herbalife Ltd. and taken a $1 billion short position in its securities. …

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SEC Charges Two with Insider Trading on Pershing Square’s Announcement on Herbalife

Here’s one sign that the cooling off for housing appreciation has become widespread: The hot San Francisco housing market actually saw home prices drop in July, marking the city’s weakest result since early 2012, according to data released Tuesday morning. Looking at a broader gauge of prices in …

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Even the hottest housing markets are starting to cool

Shortly after the markets close in the US on Tuesday, the latest round of Australian retail sales data will be released. …

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Australian Retail Sales Take the Stage

A panel of global regulators, responding to a manipulation scandal that’s shaken the financial industry, backed measures to make it harder for traders to exploit key benchmarks in the $5.3 trillion-a-day currency market. The Financial Stability Board said it supports extending the width of the tr…

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Global Regulator Backs FX Revamp After Rigging Scandals

“Mensch tracht, und Gott lacht” is a Yiddish proverb – men plan and God laughs. Woody Allen puts the same thought this way: “If you want to make God laugh tell him about your plans”.1 Some people might see these as a fitting epitaph for forward guidance on monetary policy. The Bank of England h…

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Miles: Mensch tracht, und Gott lacht: Giving guidance on future monetary policy

The International Monetary Fund is concerned the prospect of secular stagnation could take hold in the advance economies, while structural factors may be at work in the underwhelming growth rates now being seen in emerging market countries, according to the latest edition of the World Economic…

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IMF: Worried Demand in Advanced Econs May Be Persistently Weak

Investors are betting that the worst isn’t over for commodity prices that already are the lowest in five years. About $873 billion was pulled from U.S. exchange-traded products backed by raw materials this month, the most since April, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Expanding surpluses, a surgin…

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Investors Head for Exit as Commodities Extend Slump

OPEC’s oil supply jumped to its highest in almost two years in September, a Reuters survey found, due to further recovery in Libya and higher output from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers in the face of sub-$100 per barrel oil prices. The lack of any cutbacks underlines the relaxed view of OP…

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OPEC oil output hits highest since 2012 on Libya, Saudi-Reuters Survey

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Côté: Promoting Canada’s economic and financial well-being