If MF Global CEO Jon Corzine could have stayed solvent going long on eurozone peripheral sovereign debt back in 2011, he would be the stuff of Wall Street legend right now. As Deutsche Bank analysts Stuart Kirk, Rineesh Bansal, and Gaël Gunubu point out in a note, the bond market ultimately turne…
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Corzine Would Be A Wall Street God If He Could’ve Held On To His Trade
The U.S. dollar was holding broad-based gains in Asia on Tuesday in a boon for shares of Japanese exporters but a burden for oil, gold and stocks in the energy majors. As the dollar finally broke to a six-year peak on the yen and a one-year top on the euro, Brent oil sank to 16-month lows while g…
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Dollar jumps on yen, gives Japanese stocks a lift
Hedge-fund manager Paul Singer took a stand back in 2001, refusing to accept his losses on debt the Argentine government wanted to swap at a discount. Jump ahead to 2014. Singer, still fighting for full recovery on his bonds, has, with help from U.S. courts, pushed Argentina into a second default. …
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Most Influential 50 Are the Bankers, Investors Who Move Markets
While Western nations beef up economic sanctions and Nato discusses what stance to take toward Russia, the BRICS are maintaining tacit support for Moscow despite the Ukraine crisis. This is not entirely unexpected. Yet, it suggests that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) gr…
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BRICS keep supporting Russia in bid to rebalance world power
UK retail sales were up 1.3% on a like-for-like basis from August 2013, when they had increased 1.8% on the preceding year. On a total basis, sales were up 2.7%, against a 3.6% rise in August 2013. This is the best performance since January, excluding Easter distortions.Growth was driven by Clothing…
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BRC-KPMG Retail Sales: August sales growth best since January
China’s trade surplus surged to a record $49.8 billion in August, official data showed Monday, as imports saw a surprising fall and export growth slowed in a further sign of softness in the world’s second-largest economy. The mixed bag of data from the General Administration of Customs follows a …
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China’s August trade surplus hits record $49.8 bil
Output in the UK manufacturing sector has been zigzagging since the start of this year, rising 1.5% in the first quarter before falling to a rise of just 0.2% in the second quarter, according to official hard data. Markit’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey pointed to a prolonged slow…
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UK factories’ output to keep pace at Q3 start
A forex client asked to apply my disciplined way of analyzing forex charts to the the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow. I will take a look at the SPX Index, and define risk using the technical tools and also outline some targets to the upside. …
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A technical look at the S&P Index
If you want to understand the stakes in the September 18 referendum on Scottish independence, you have to remember that Alex Salmond, the country’s first minister, is famous for his devotion to horseracing and his gambling tips. On this occasion, he has come up with an accumulator bet. Salmond…
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Scotland Would Have To Win 4 High-Risk Bets For Successful Independence
Mario Draghi surprised markets last week with a further cut in interest rates and a QE plan to start purchases of assets to expand the ECB balance sheet. These two actions were welcome as well as the change in the content and tone of his comments that are finally make it clear the need for strong…
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Whatever it takes to see helicopter Mario (Draghi)
GBP/JPY is essentially signaling a bearish outlook. Let’s first go back to the bullish attempt last week that broke above a falling trendline, but then held below 174.00. The failure to clear 174.00 and the subsequent decline was an early warning that the bullish continuation scenario needs to be…
Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July as non-revolving loans including those for cars climbed by the most in three years. The $26 billion increase in credit exceeded the highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey and followed an $18.8 billion advance in June that was more tha…
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Consumer Credit in U.S. Surges on More Loans for Automobiles
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s recent speech at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has excited great interest, but the implication of his remarks is even more startling than many initially recognized. If a eurozone breakup is to be avoided, escaping…
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Facing Reality in the Eurozone
Paul Orwicz, a money manager at billionaire Steven A. Cohen’s investment firm, departed Point72 Asset Management LP a week after he was arrested for reckless driving in his McLaren supercar in Connecticut. Paul Orwicz, 46, said in a telephone interview that he resigned last week after his two-yea…
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Steve Cohen Money Manager Exits After McLaren Reckless-Driving Arrest
Larry Summers’s secular stagnation speech at the IMF in November last year set the economic world ablaze as the Harvard professor warned that asset bubbles might be necessary for developed economies to reach their potential growth. Now it seems he may have changed his mind. …
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Larry Summers Admits He May Have Been Wrong On Secular Stagnation
Investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower for longer, and to raise them more slowly, than the makers of U.S monetary policy themselves expect, according to research published Monday by the San Francisco Fed. Economists of top Wall Street firms, for instance, see the t…
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Investors expect lower rates for longer than Fed itself: Fed study
Recently, subdued levels of volatility in financial markets have received some attention. For example, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (2014) noted that “indicators of expected volatility in some asset markets have fallen to low levels, suggesting that some investors may underappreciate the…
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Assessing Expectations of Monetary Policy
The USDJPY is trading at the highest level since September 2008. The price has broken above the high from earlier this month and above the 61.8% of the move down from the 2007 high to the 2011 low at the 105.576. This is now the risk defining support level for the pair.
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USDJPY trades at highest level since September 2008
The lackluster August employment report clearly defied expectations (including my own) for a strong number to round out the generally positive pattern of recent data. That said, one number does not make a trend, and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls is notoriously volatile. The underlying…
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Forward Guidance Heading for a Change
Comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny: • Eurozone is still far away from ECB inflation goal • Growth levels in eurozone are still very low Suddenly the tone is a bit different from Nowotny. A couple months ago they liked to bury their heads in the sand and ignore the declining fundam…
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ECB Nowotny: Inflation in eurozone still very low
