Pressure for the ECB to do more has returned. We do not expect sovereign QE, but we acknowledge that Draghi’s concerns about the recent fall in long-term inflation expectations, which will be reflected in the official statement, might lead the Governing Council to act pre-emptively. Therefore, we…
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Europe Week Ahead: ECB, BoE, EZ PMIs, German IP, UK PMI
The week ahead is looking incredible busy for central banks, with policy decisions expected from the BoE, ECB, BoJ and RBA. We also have a number of speeches scheduled for members of the Federal Reserve ahead of the week long blackout period that precedes its own rate decision. If that’s not enou…
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Weekly market preview – 1 September 2014
August ISM manufacturing likely edged down to 56.2 in line with regional manufacturing surveys. We expect a downtick in the August ISM manufacturing PMI, reflecting an expected retracement in some of its components and reported declines in regional manufacturing activity surveys. July ISM PMI rose…
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US Week Ahead: Payrolls, ISM, Factory Orders, Trade Balance, Beige Book, Housing
The euro was the big loser in a week that otherwise saw some profit taking on dollar longs. The first week of September is packed with top tier events as traders return from their vacations. Rate decisions in Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, and most importantly the euro-zone, and US PMIs leading…
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Forex Weekly Outlook September 1-5
Ukraine called on Friday for full membership in NATO, its strongest plea yet for Western military help, after accusing Russia of sending in armored columns that have driven back its forces on behalf of pro-Moscow rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin, defiant as ever, compared Kiev’s drive to …
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Ukraine seeks to join NATO; defiant Putin compares Kiev to Nazis
Speculative accounts again added to their net euro short positions as well as their net yen short positions as of August 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, released Friday. The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report – non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding opt…
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US CFTC: Spec Accounts Have Extended Net Euro, Net Yen Shorts
The European Central Bank has run out of ways to help the euro area, putting the burden on governments to spur growth without running excessive deficits, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. In an interview with Bloomberg Television at the Medef business leaders’ conference near Paris…
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Schaeuble Sees Draghi’s Instruments for Growth Exhausted
Goldman Sachs today revised down its EUR/USD forecast to 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.35, 1.34 and 1.30 previously). GS also revised its longer-term forecasts lower, bringing the end-2015 number down to 1.15 (from 1.27), that for end-2016 to 1.05 (from 1.23) and that for end…
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Goldman: The Case For Revising Down Our EUR/USD Forecast
Looks like someone just realized they needed to fill a large cable order before month end. GBP/USD up to 1.6595 from 1.6568 in seconds. Huge move in a thin market on no news? If you’re around on a Friday, that’s the kind of thing you might want to fade. …
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Huge cable bid hits thin market, pound jumps
U.S. trucking demand is on a steady course higher, in tandem with rising consumption and a moderately expanding economy, according to transportation executives. Trucking executives said the big rigs that haul close to 70% of the goods moving around the U.S., from building materials to baby toys, …
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Reality Check: US Economy Grinding Higher, Trucking Execs Say
The Securities and Exchange Commission has received its share of criticism for not properly policing markets. But lost amid headlines Thursday was a damning indictment from inside the agency. Luis Aguilar wasn’t willing to go along with a settlement against Kevin Kyser, the former chief financial…
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SEC is ‘weak’ on enforcement — says one of its commissioners
Brazil’s economy slipped into recession for the first time in more than five years as investments contracted on lower confidence before the October presidential election. Gross domestic product shrank by 0.6 percent in the April-June period from the previous three months, after contracting a revi…
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Brazil Goes Into Recession for First Time in Over 5 Years
Consumer sentiment continues to show signs of life this year. After pulling back in July, the index climbed higher in August as Americans remain upbeat about current economic conditions. According to Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading, consumer sentiment improved to 82.5 this…
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Consumer Sentiment Rebounds, But America Needs a Raise
September has historically been the worst month for the market. So with stocks near record highs, should investors be worried about a big September swoon once the Hampton Jitney returns to Wall Street after Labor Day? Many experts say no. Here are 4 reasons why. 1. September has a bad reputa…
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4 reasons why you shouldn’t fear September
Month-end portfolio demand, geopolitical and event risk are all taking a stab at making an impact on forex prices. So far, and not unfamiliar, investors continue to wade through the same contrived trading ranges, but this time the EUR bear must be feeling a tad stronger in their convictions. It w…
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ECB not influenced by flash CPI
Down goes the barrier. Wave of dollar demand since the London fix.
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EUR/USD falls below 1.3150
Argentina’s default last month may not have looked or felt like a typical sovereign debt debacle, but that doesn’t mean bondholders have escaped scot-free. No developing nation’s bonds have lost more value this month than Argentina’s, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index of dollar-denominate…
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Argentina’s Abnormal Default Still Hurts as Losses Swell
This Great Graphic, constructed on Bloomberg, shows the CRB Index (white line) and the euro (yellow line) over the past six month. It is not meant to imply a causal relationship; as in weaker commodity prices cause the euro to fall. What we are interested in here is the news today that while t…
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The Euro and Commodity Prices
A wave of US dollar selling is hitting ahead of month-end. USD/CAD is also under pressure after better Canadian GDP data. The selling stalled at almost precisely the 55-dma so watch that level
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Stops hit as USD/CAD falls to lowest levels of August, stalls at 55-dma
