If the GBP is the best tactical long versus the EUR, we see the best strategic long in the USD. Our positive view of the US economy and expectations for more aggressive policy action by the Federal Reserve have made us persistent USD bulls, expecting across-the-board appreciation. Nowhere is this…
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The Strategic Case For Selling EUR/USD – Barclays
Continuing the theme of the past 6 weeks, the medium term outlook continues to deteriorate from a variety of technical perspectives, chart patterns, support breakdowns, and strengthening downwards momentum. In addition, the pair’s slow grind lower within its descending channel from of the past 3…
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EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Continued Plunging? Here’s What To Watch
The US dollar had a good week, gaining against all the major currencies. Strong economic data underpinned it, and what we suspect is a mistaken belief that the debate about an earlier rate hike by the Fed has truly intensified. Ironically, the strong data failed to instill any traction in US bon…
Next week, the Eurozone menu du jour will consist of growth, inflation and money/credit developments; enough to refresh views and expectations. The main message should be that, even if there is no reason to change our directional views, a feeling of discomfort is still present. In terms of gro…
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Europe Week Ahead: EZ CPI Prints, -M3, German IFO, French INSEE
One of the thorniest issues facing the euro zone is how members of the 18-country currency bloc can improve competitiveness and exports without having a national currency that can be devalued. In a paper published by the European Central Bank, a trio of economists have come up with a way: “f…
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ECB Economists Find Benefits in ‘Fiscal Devaluation’
We look for sales of new single-family homes to rise 5.0% in July, partially reversing the June decline. Following an 8.1% drop in June, new single-family home sales likely rebounded. July sales conditions reported by homebuilders improved, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising another 4 points….
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US Week Ahead: Durable Goods, GDP, PCE Index, Cons Conf, UMich Sent, Housing
The dollar dominated once again, with multi-month gains against major currencies. Is it time for a correction or will this trend continue? German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data, Durable Goods Orders and GDP are amongthe highlights of this week. Follow along as we explore the Forex market…
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Forex Weekly Outlook August 25-29
Monetary policy can only buy time to deal with structural problems in an economy, and exiting a loose stance too late can be risky, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in a nod to the European Central Bank. Jaime Caruana, head of the BIS – known as “the central banks’ ce…
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Central banks can only buy time, BIS chief tells paper in nod to ECB
A largely quiet week ahead from an economic standpoint, as is typically the case for the last week of the month. That being said, there is always something moving the market and this week has a handful of events to watch out for. In the US, a GDP reading on Thursday will likely dominate market minds…
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Weekly market preview – 25 August 2014
Europe is in a difficult predicament. Inflation has fallen to 0.4%, and economic growth has been anemic for years. Though the European Central Bank has kept interest rates close to zero, private credit growth is stalling and public debt continues to rise. This sounds a lot like Japan’s situation in…
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A European Lost Decade?
Well if the first half took USD/JPY to 104 from 78 then does that mean the second half takes it to 130? Other headlines from Kuroda at Jackson Hole • Accommodation will continue until price stability seen • Monetary policy still has power over economy Dovish stuff.
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BOJ’s Kuroda says Japan only “halfway” to achieving price stability
Succinct Summations week ending August 22nd Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 2. Existing homes sales increased to 2.4%, the biggest increase in almost a year. 3. Housing starts exploded 15.7% m/o/m, the fastest pace in 8 months. 4. Jobless claims fell to 298k vs the 303k expe…
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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.22.14
• Drop in European inflation due to temporary factors such as Ukraine and energy • Most effects depressing inflation are temporary • New ECB lending programs to banks will be ineffective in helping economy without govt structural reforms Draghi is dovish on the headline but he’s brushing off the …
Despite weak data spurring doubts over whether Japan’s economy is really recovering, property investors remain keen on the market. “We’re backing Abenomics reflating the Japanese economy and feeding through to real assets like real estate,” said Andrew Jackson, head of real estate funds at Standa…
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Forget Japan’s shrinking economy: property looks hot
Despite weak data spurring doubts over whether Japan’s economy is really recovering, property investors remain keen on the market. “We’re backing Abenomics reflating the Japanese economy and feeding through to real assets like real estate,” said Andrew Jackson, head of real estate funds at Standa…
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Forget Japan’s shrinking economy: property looks hot
No one in society remains untouched by a situation of high unemployment. For the unemployed themselves, it is often a tragedy which has lasting effects on their lifetime income. For those in work, it raises job insecurity and undermines social cohesion. For governments, it weighs on public finances…
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Draghi: Unemployment in the euro area
• Better to raise rates too early than too late • Policy statement has put Fed “in a box” • Fed doesn’t know whether it can actually improve margins of labor market • Fed ‘mired’ in debate on labor market Plosser spoke with Reuters. There’s almost nothing Plosser could say that would move market…
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Fed’s Plosser urges rate rise “pretty soon”
Saxo Bank, a Danish bank and forex broker, has revealed its operational metrics for the first half of the year showing a decrease in income and profits compared to H1 the prior year. However, the customers trust in the company is not under question with a remarkable increase of clients’ collateral…
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Saxo Bank: Client’s deposits hit record high in H1 2014
When Jorge Velasquez accepted an internship at Citigroup this summer, he wasn’t dreaming about becoming the next Jamie Dimon. He’s far more interested in following in the footsteps of Steve Jobs. …
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Talent wars: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street
