“It’s time to start look for a top in the S&P500,” are the cautious words that BofAML’s Macneil Curry begins his latest note, adding that this corrections will pressure 10Y yields to new cycle lows. Via BofAML, Start looking for an S&P500 top. Its time to start look for a top in the S&P50…
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BofAML: “Start Looking For An S&P Top”
Mary Jo White took the helm of the Securities and Exchange Commission amid high hopes that she could turn around the once-proud agency. More than a year into her tenure, she has disappointed a wide swath of would-be allies. Over the last several weeks, I’ve been talking to fellow regulators, admi…
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Once Powerful, Mary Jo White’s S.E.C. Is Seen as Sluggish and Ineffective
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been relying on forward guidance to help shape investors’ expectations for the policy outlook. Because the Federal Reserve is gradually slowing its asset purchase program, it has not had to rely as much on forward guidance as the Bank of England. F…
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Fluid US and UK Rate Expectations
The mighty franc is undermining the “Made in Switzerland” label. For exporters, it’s a double whammy. The depreciation of emerging-markets currencies against the franc is making Swiss products less attractive. At the same time, operating factories in the Alpine nation is becoming increasingly exp…
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Mighty Franc Poses Challenge for Made-in-Switzerland Label
Is a shrinking population always a bad thing? Judging by the lamentations of some economists and policymakers in the advanced economies, where people are living longer and birth rates have fallen below replacement levels, one certainly might think so. In fact, the benefits of demographic stability –…
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When Fewer Is Better
The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference is next week, and all eyes are looking for signs that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to chart a dovish path for monetary policy well into next year. Indeed, the conference title itself – “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics” -…
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Heading Into Jackson Hole
BRAZIL PRES. CANDIDATE CAMPOS DIES IN PLANE CRASH: GLOBONEWS. Brazil’s stock market is reeling this morning as rumors and now news hit that Brazilian Presidential candidate Eduardo Campos was on board a private jet that crashed in the city of Santos. Polls had put Mr. Campos head-to-head with Ms….
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IBOVESPA Plunges As Brazil Presidential Candidate’s Jet Crashes
A few weeks ago, we raised the possibility that USDJPY could see a breakout from its 7-month descending triangle pattern (see “Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?” for more). A few days later, the pair broke out of the pattern, eventually running up to 103.00 before losing steam and pulling back to…
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USDJPY: Sailing through Rough Retail Sales Seas
One of the Federal Reserve’s most outspoken officials may not be so hawkish after all. Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker said he believes the central bank will not raise its target for short-term interest rates until next year. In an interview in his office this week, Lacker called that scenario…
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This Fed hawk could signal a shift in the opposition
U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week as refineries cut output, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for a d…
The message from the Bank of England was clear. As clear as mud, that is. The economy is a mystery to the best brains of Threadneedle Street, scratching their heads at figures showing unemployment and earnings growth are both heading south at a rapid pace. This really shouldn’t be happening as fa…
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Bank of England inflation report: pay puzzle gives Carney some wriggle room
U.S. business inventories rose in June, but a modest gain in stocks at non-automobile retailers suggested that the growth estimate for the second quarter could be revised a bit lower. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday inventories increased 0.4 percent after rising 0.5 percent in May. E…
A serious re-evaluation of how broker-dealers are supervised is overdue and should bring about higher capital requirements given the threat broker-dealers still pose to the U.S. financial system, a top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday. Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed and…
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Tougher broker-dealer rules needed, Fed’s Rosengren says
It is a pleasure to welcome you to the New York Fed today to discuss the important issue of wholesale funding.1 As you all know, the financial system plays an essential role in modern economies, and liquidity is in turn critical to the functioning of the financial system. Because financial interm…
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Dudley: Welcoming Remarks at Workshop on the Risks of Wholesale Funding
Today will likely prove to be the most eventful of the week. It has already featured Q2 Japanese GDP, a slew of Chinese data, euro zone industrial output and UK employment and the BOE’s quarterly inflation report. Still to come are US retail sales and Fed talk. The most important development…
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BOE’s Quarterly Inflation Report Pushes Sterling Down
Retail sales were little changed in July, the worst performance in six months, as car demand slowed and tepid wage growth restrained U.S. consumers. The slowdown in purchases followed a 0.2 percent advance in June, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 82 ec…
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Retail Sales Little Changed in Slow Start to U.S. Third Quarter
The Bank of England forecast on Wednesday that wages would grow far more slowly than previously expected and linked their rate of increase closely to borrowing costs, suggesting it was in no hurry to raise Britain’s record low interest rates. Shortly after data showed average British wages suffer…
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Bank of England slashes wages forecast, says key for policy
USD/CAD is further fading near the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). Hourly supports stand at 1.0905 (04/08/2014 low) and 1.0845 (intraday low). Another resistance can be found at 1.1053. In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum…
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USD/CAD Moving sideways near the support at 1.0905
Ukraine denounced the dispatch of a Russian humanitarian aid convoy to eastern Ukraine as an act of Russian cynicism on Wednesday and said it would not be allowed in. The comments reflected suspicions in Kiev and Western capitals that passage of the convoy onto Ukrainian soil could turn into a co…
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Ukraine says Russian aid convoy won’t be let in, denounces Moscow’s ‘cynicism’
Volatility in the forex market space has been in short supply throughout this year. If anything, it has been regionally contained by CBanks policy and this despite the uptick to both geopolitical and economic event risks. Sustainable forex volatility will only occur with greater G10 rate divergence,…
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GBP Running Away From the Bulls
