EUR/USD fell to lower ground but yet again staged a late recovery to minimize its losses, remaining within the narrowing channel. Will this pattern continue? GDP numbers and a key German survey are the highlights of a busy week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated…
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EUR/USD Forecast August 11-15
Just streets away from Madrid’s only three-Michelin-starred restaurant, peeling buildings in the city’s Tetuán neighbourhood have been plastered with posters featuring the faces of five women. Placed at eye level, each a few yards apart, the women’s portraits are accompanied by descriptions of their…
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Why a little economic growth won’t see an end to the pain in Spain
The pullback in global indexes, and the implied risk aversion, continues. It has now officially reached the US indexes as they log their second straight week in their double Bollinger® band neutral zone. It could have been worse. For example, the S&P 500 would likely have closed the week much lower,…
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EURUSD Coming Week Technical, Fundamental Outlook & Why USD Rising While Rates Fall
It’s hardly the $30,000 a night royal suite, but after five months in India’s biggest jail, the owner of the New York Plaza and London’s Grosvenor House is thrilled to be able to use a modest office as he tries to sell the iconic hotels. Indian tycoon Subrata Roy is putting up the two trophy pro…
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From an Indian jail, tycoon tries to sell the New York Plaza
The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies over the past week. The main exception was the Japanese yen. The combination of the decline in US yields to new 12-month lows, the drop in equities (S&P 500 reached 3-month lows, and the heightened geopolitical anxiety appears to have…
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Beware of Corrective Forces
Investors are worried about rising interest rates, and yet rates are lower than at year-end 2013. Folks fret that stocks are overvalued, and yet the broad U.S. market is up for 2014, despite the recent turmoil. We are, alas, constantly blindsided by the markets. We don’t know what economic and po…
The focus in Europe should remain on near-term risks to the economic outlook, in relation to recent geopolitical events and macro news. The latest set of hard activity data disappointed massively relative to expectations, notably in Germany, France and Italy. With no clear fix to the diplomatic…
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Europe Week Ahead: EZ GDP Releases, German ZEW, BoE QIR, UK Employ
Pundits have talked about peak oil and peak water, and peak nearly every finite resource. A peak in certain behavior is suggestive of a potential social shift. Paul Kedrosky at Bloomberg tweeted this Great Graphic from dshort.com. It shows the change in miles driven by Americans adjusted for…
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Peak Driving
In July the federal government likely incurred a deficit of USD96.0bn, following a USD71.0bn surplus in June. According to CBO estimates, total receipts totalled USD210bn, 5% more than in July 2013, and total outlays were USD306bn, 3% more than in July 2013. The revenue gain was largely due to the…
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US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI, IP, Empire Svy, UMich Svy, CBO Budget
China’s consumer inflation remained below the government’s goal in July, suggesting monetary easing has yet to filter through to prices in the broader economy. The consumer price index rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing, the same pace as in Ju…
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China Inflation Remains Below Annual Target
China’s consumer inflation remained below the government’s goal in July, suggesting monetary easing has yet to filter through to prices in the broader economy. The consumer price index rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing, the same pace as in Ju…
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China Inflation Remains Below Annual Target
The US dollar and the Japanese yen were the winners in a week which saw mounting geopolitical fear and lots of action. German Economic Sentiment; UK employment data; Mark Carney’s speech and inflation report; US unemployment claims, PPI, consumer sentiment are the major topics in Forex calendar….
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Forex Weekly Outlook August 11-15
Formulating monetary policy at the European Central Bank is akin to “herding cats,” former Bank of England governor Charles Goodhart said yesterday. The disparity of views among ECB policy makers, he said, explains the “difficult circumstances” Mario Draghi faces in his efforts to resuscitate the…
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Sausages, Cats and the ECB
Positives: 1. AAII bearish sentiment rose to its highest levels since August 2013, people still are so quick to call a top for this bull market. 2. Chinese exports increased by 14.5% in July, the biggest increase since April 2013 3. Initial jobless claims came in at 289k vs 304k expected, the 4…
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Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 8/8/14
Earlier today, we saw the yield on the 10-year Treasury note tumble to 2.37%, the lowest level since June 2013. “It’s really hard for me to identify why rates should go higher,” said Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Funds. In a phone call with Business Insider, Gundlach reiterated his expectation …
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Jeff Gundlach Warned Us Rates Could Fall, And They Did — Here’s What He’s Saying Now
A former Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) employee was sentenced to two years in prison on Friday for his part in an insider trading scheme that netted him and his partner more than $400,000. Brian Jorgenson, 32, had pleaded guilty to securities fraud for his part in a sophisticated operation in which he …
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Ex-Microsoft employee gets two years in prison for insider trades
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Traders in Financial Futures – Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 5, 2014
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose, while Treasuries erased gains as signs that Russia is de-escalating tension in Ukraine outweighed concern about crises in the Middle East. The S&P 500 added 0.9 percent at 2 p.m. in New York, erasing its decline for the week. Futures contracts on the Euro Sto…
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U.S. Stocks Rise, Bonds Erase Gains on Easing in Ukraine
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose, while Treasuries erased gains as signs that Russia is de-escalating tension in Ukraine outweighed concern about crises in the Middle East. The S&P 500 added 0.9 percent at 2 p.m. in New York, erasing its decline for the week. Futures contracts on the Euro Sto…
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U.S. Stocks Rise, Bonds Erase Gains on Easing in Ukraine
Despite a raft of geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. stocks were moving higher at the end of a volatile week. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 were up nearly 1% in afternoon trading. The Nasdaq was up 0.75%. If these gains hold, all three indexes would end the week up. Global tur…
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What global turmoil? U.S. stocks up 1%
