It’s not a surprise to the forex landscape that market movement remains somewhat beholding to Central Bank rate announcements, and less so to geopolitical and fundamental risks. This week we still have two of the biggest Central Banks to report – ECB and BoE. What is currently happening in the forex…
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EUR’s Noose Tightens
German Bund yields fell to record lows on Wednesday as investors sought refuge in top-rated assets after Russia appeared to step up military exercises near its border with Ukraine. Data showing Italy unexpectedly slipped back into recession in the second quarter, exacerbating worries about the pa…
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Ukraine tensions push yields on safe-haven Bunds to record lows
The Commerce Department reports on the U.S. trade deficit in June. The report will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. LITTLE CHANGE: The forecast is that the deficit was roughly the same in June, at $44.3 billion, compared with $44.4 billion in May, according to a survey of economists by…
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US International Trade Preview
The leader of Scotland’s campaign for independence failed to turn a U.S.-style television debate into a victory for his cause on Tuesday six weeks before Scots vote on whether to break up the United Kingdom. In an unexpected setback for those who support a breakaway, Alex Salmond, the leader of …
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In Scotland, pro-independence leader flunks TV debate
Italy returned to recession and German factory orders dropped the most since 2011 as political tensions and slowing global growth threaten the euro area’s recovery. Italy’s economy shrank 0.2 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.1 percent in the previous three months, the national s…
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Italy Recession, German Orders Signal Euro-Area Struggles
As if we ever thought it was beginning to calm down, geopolitical risk is back and playing a major role in these markets once more. Suggestions from the Polish foreign minister that Russian troops were massing on the border with Ukraine has spooked the markets again. This news spooked Wall Street…
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Expect a strengthening dollar to drag the euro lower again
Italy’s economy unexpectedly slid back into recession in the second quarter as gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent from the first three months of the year, preliminary data showed on Wednesday. The result was below all forecasts in a Reuters survey of 25 analysts, which had pointed to a sec…
U.K. industrial production rose less than economists forecast in June and the output estimate for the second quarter was revised lower. Production increased 0.3 percent from May, when it fell 0.6 percent, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median forecast of 32 economis…
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U.K. Industrial Production Rises Less Than Economists Forecast
•Production output increased by 0.3% and manufacturing output increased by 0.2% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014. •The largest contribution to the quarterly growth in production came from electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning output, which increased by 4.4%. •Production output increased by 1.2% be…
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UK Index of Production, June 2014
Retail sales in the eurozone fell in July as France and Italy both saw accelerated contractions in trade, the latest PMI® figures from Markit showed. The fall in retail sales in the euro area was the most marked since May 2013 despite further, albeit slower, growth recorded in the currency bloc’s…
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Eurozone retail sales fall in July as downturns in France and Italy deepen
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Swiss CPI unchanged yr/yr in July
The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group. EUR/USD: Now targeting 1.3324/295. The euro is back on its losing streak as the chance of correction disappeared on the break below 1.3378. A 261.8% Fibo p…
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Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD – SEB
July data signalled a continuation of the downturn in Germany’s construction sector, but the rate at which total activity fell eased since the previous month. Housing and commercial activity returned to growth, and work on civil engineering projects dec lined at a weaker rate. Meanwhile, workf…
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German construction activity declines for fourth month running, albeit at weaker rate
House prices in the latest three months (May-July 2014) were 3.6% higher than in the preceding three months (February-April 2014). Prices in the three months to July were 10.2% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This continued the upward trend in the annual rate. Aft…
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UK Halifax House Price Index – July 2014
To put it mildly, the future is bleak for real estate. So, I’m going to stick with my theme that only fools and suckers should be buying homes these days. Unless, of course, you live in New York City! Read MoreHomeowners: A new class of fools: Schoenberger The NY real estate market is hot, hot…
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Get ready for the New York real estate bubble to POP!
Price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing in June 2014 decreased a seasonally and working day adjusted 3.2% on May 2014 (following –1.6% in May 2014 on April 2014). Domestic orders decreased 1.9% and foreign orders by 4.1%. As regards the direction of trade in foreign transactions, new orders from…
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German New orders in June 2014 down a seasonally adjusted –3.2% on the previous month
Japan’s leading index rose for the first time in five months, preliminary figures from Cabinet Office showed Wednesday. The leading index rose to 105.5 in June from 104.8 in May, which was the lowest since January 2013. Economists had forecast a score of 105.4 for June. Meanwhile, the coincid…
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Japan Leading Index Rises For First Time In 5 Months
As The WSJ reports, loan-application data show clear signs of growing student-debt burdens. Through the first half of this year, applicants with student debt carried more than $35,000 in student loans. As most people know, a key metric that mortgage underwriters use to evaluate a borrowers’ ability…
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Why Student Loans Are Crushing The Housing Recovery In 1 Chart
Japanese FX giant GMO Click Securities has today announced its monthly trading metrics for July 2014, which paint a gloomy picture for the domestic Japanese FX market as a result of the company completing July with a 10% downturn in trading volume compared with June this year. Rather more concern…
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GMO Click sees lowest FX volumes since 2012 in July
One time a very smart guy told me that the only stock he was really willing to make big bets on was Apple Inc. When I asked him why, he chuckled and said “It goes up!” That was in September 2012. The idea that a stock “goes up,” like some law of nature, is an example of a very important behavioral…
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The Trend Is Your Friend Till It Isn’t
