When Monte Burnham, the president of Birmingham, Ala.-based Foundry Manufacturing Solutions, recently visited Tianjin, China, he was pleasantly surprised to find its air more breathable than during his previous stay. …
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Chinese Data Don’t Add Up
Forget lions, tigers, and bears. For market watchers this week it’s all about the Fed, GDP, and jobs, oh my! The curtain is about to be pulled back to reveal some key economic data. Here’s what you need to know. It’s the economy, stupid: Investors will have to wait until Friday for the main ev…
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There’s no place like the economy
The main drivers in the week ahead will come from the United States. Rarely does the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meet in the same week as the monthly jobs report. In addition, the government will publish its first estimate of Q2 GDP and the Employment Cost Index. For extra measure, auto…
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It is Mostly about the US in the Week Ahead
EUR/USD lost ground for another week and reached levels last seen in November 2013. Will it continue lower? Inflation numbers stand out among the wide list of releases due. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. Eurozone PMIs improved in J…
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EUR/USD Forecast Jul 28-Aug 1
A gauge of the dollar advanced the most in four months as reports showed signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market before the Federal Reserve meets debate the pace of interest-rate increases. The U.S. currency climbed to an eight-month high versus the euro this week as jobless claims tumbled…
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Dollar Climbs Most in 4 Months Before Fed on Jobs Market
Argentina looks set to default on its debt for the second time in 12 years next Thursday as negotiations with “holdout” investors seemingly go nowhere and neither side shows signs of blinking first, though a last minute deal can’t be discounted. Latin America’s No. 3 economy has for years fought…
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Argentine default looms as time runs out for debt deal
Against the major currencies, the US dollar had a good week. It appreciated across the board, with two minor exceptions. The Swedish krona continued to recover from the slide spurred by the larger than expected 50 bp rate cut at the start of the month. A few data points, including June…
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Respecting FX Price Action
The EUR/USD had an unusual week, bizarrely breaking below key support at 1.3500 on Tuesday before consolidating in the upper-1.3400s for the remainder of the week. From a technical perspective, the lack of a bearish continuation after breaking below support is a potential warning sign for sellers,…
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The Week Ahead: Week of July 28th, 2014
Following a 6.1% jump in May, pending home sales likely fell by 1.0% in June. May’s jump of 6.1% in pending sales likely retraced in June. New home sales dropped 8.1% in June, almost reversing the previous jump of 8.3% and pushed the month’s supply higher to 5.8. As pending home sales tracks new…
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US Week Ahead: FOMC, NFP, ISM, GDP, ECI, UMich Sent, Housing
The EUR continues to be pared back, and now through significant technical and psychological levels (new yearly lows below €1.3473). The much talked about €1.3400 (€1B vanilla) option barrier test seems inevitable, especially on fresh momentum. The creeping rise of short U.S. yields is supporting the…
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Week in FX Europe – EUR’s Timeline for Demise Lengthened
Next week’s most important data release for the near-term ECB outlook is the Eurozone July HICP flash estimate. There is little doubt that inflation is set to remain at its June low level (0.5%), and indeed we are in line with consensus in looking for a 0.4% YoY print. Yet, this may not stop the…
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Europe Week Ahead: ECB BLS, EZ Inflation & PMIs Data, Spain GDP, UK PMI
The US dollar advanced nicely in a week that saw mixed data. A triplet of top tier US events dominates the scene: Q2 GDP, the Fed meeting and the Non-Farm Payrolls. There are other important indicators in the US and elsewhere. Here is an outlook on the major events coming our way. Geo-politics co…
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Forex Weekly Outlook Jul. 28 – Aug. 1
The Fed’s QE3 program is scheduled to end later this year. This will bring to a close the Fed’s five year experiment with QE programs. They have been incredibly controversial, especially among those who believe these programs enabled the federal government to run large budget deficits. Those holding…
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A Surprising Look Back at the Fed’s QE Programs
The old Adirondacks home of the famous financier J.P. Morgan is now on the market for $3.25 million. …
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You Can Buy The Original J.P. Morgan’s Secluded Adirondacks Compound For $3 Million
Succinct Summations week ending July 25th 2014 Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time highs. 2. US Initial jobless claims came in at 284k well below the 307k expected and the lowest reading since February ‘06. 3. Existing home sales came in at 5.04M annualized, better than exp…
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Succinct Summations of Week Events 7.25.14
Moody’s Investors Service has today upgraded Portugal’s government bond rating to Ba1 from Ba2. The outlook on the rating is now stable. Portugal’s short-term debt rating remains unchanged at Not-Prime. Today’s rating action concludes the review for upgrade that Moody’s initiated on 9 May 2014. T…
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Moody’s upgrades Portugal’s government bond rating to Ba1 and assigns stable outlook
Markets may still be underpricing geopolitical risk to a certain extent, but no one has told that to the main commodity currencies as they continue to struggle. The Kiwi remains under pressure from Governor Wheeler at the RBNZ “dovish tightening” moves mid-week ($0.8546). He hikes and then tells …
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Canada’s Loonie Beaten And Bloodied
TABLES
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Traders in Financial Futures – Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 22, 2014
It is symbolic that the recent BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, took place exactly seven decades after the Bretton Woods Conference that created the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The upshot of the BRICS meeting was the announcement of the New Development Bank, which will mobilize…
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After the Dollar
Japan’s exports stagnated even as Germany, South Korea and the U.S. saw their shipments surpass levels registered from the 2008 credit crisis, showing how a cheaper yen hasn’t stopped the nation’s manufacturers from moving abroad. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the value of Japan’s exports is 23 per…
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Japan’s Export-Champ Days Are Left Behind, Chart Shows
