For Federal Reserve officials already worried about a persistent lack of U.S. wage and price growth, one corner of the bond market may be suggesting even more reason for alarm. The Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market is suggesting price stagnation may be just around the corner. …
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U.S. TIPS market signals rising concerns about disinflation
EUR/USD managed to stage a nice recovery but didn’t go too far before losing some of the gains. Has it finally bottomed out? An important German survey and final CPI are accompanied by several speeches from Mario Draghi and other events. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an…
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EUR/USD Forecast Oct. 13-17
It seems the market was waiting for an excuse to start selling off the U.S dollar after it had spiked in the recent weeks against the Euro, Yen and Aussie dollar. Last week, the minutes of the FOMC meting provided the excuse to start selling U.S dollar, after the FOMC members voiced their concerns…
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Gold and Silver Outlook for October 13 -17
It is a great honor to deliver the Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture, and I thank the organizers for inviting me.1 Per Jacobsson, a Swede, was the third Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), serving from 1956 to 1963. During his tenure, the fund supported the return to…
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Fischer: The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy
It is a great honor to deliver the Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture, and I thank the organizers for inviting me.1 Per Jacobsson, a Swede, was the third Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), serving from 1956 to 1963. During his tenure, the fund supported the return to…
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Fischer: The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy
Draghi spoke on Saturday from the sidelines of the G20: • We expect the drag on growth from fiscal consolidation to considerably diminish in coming months • Sees stabilization in lending flows • Eurozone faces long period of low inflation • IMF and ECB have different deflation definitions • ECB…
Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo rejected the notion that regulators have completed their work to ensure that no financial firm is too essential to be allowed to collapse. “I don’t know that I personally at least would declare too-big-to-fail ended,” Tarullo said at a conference held by t…
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Tarullo Says Too Soon to Declare Too-Big-to-Fail Is Over
Last week was of two halves. The dollar correctly lower through midweek and then recovered. While the dollar’s losses were pared, it still managed to fall against nearly all the major currencies. However, it finished the week on a firm note, and although it appears poised to move higher in the…
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Is the Dollar Correction Over, or Just the First Leg?
Positives: 1. Despite the recent bout of volatility, the S&P 500 is just under 5% off its all-time highs. 2. The national price of gasoline fell to $3.24, the lowest since December 2013. 3. Initial jobless claims came down to 287k while the 4 week average is at the lowest levels since ’06. 4. …
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Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 10.10.14
With no end in sight to macro data weakness, the pressure will remain on Eurozone policymakers to react. Near-term, however, the risks are tilted toward rising political tensions and market stress. The ECB has done its part for now, although it stands ready to do more if needed. Governments, on the…
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Europe Week Ahead: German ZEW, EZ CPI, -IP, UK CPI
The US dollar took a hit, finally correcting its gains, but it didn’t fall too far. UK inflation data, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen’s speeches, US Retail sales are the major events on our calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way. Despite continuous posi…
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Forex Weekly Outlook October 13-17
The October Empire State Manufacturing survey index likely remained solid but retraced a few points following a jump in September. The Empire State Manufacturing index of general business conditions likely declined to 21.0 in October after a nearly 13-point jump to 27.54 in September. In the…
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US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI, IP, Beige Book, Empire-, UMich Svy, Philly Fed, Housing
The October Empire State Manufacturing survey index likely remained solid but retraced a few points following a jump in September. The Empire State Manufacturing index of general business conditions likely declined to 21.0 in October after a nearly 13-point jump to 27.54 in September. In the…
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US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI, IP, Beige Book, Empire-, UMich Svy, Philly Fed, Housing
A somewhat mixed week ahead in terms of economic announcements, where the quantity of releases is negated by a lack of quality. In the US, a speech from Janet Yellen on Friday allows markets to gauge exactly where the Fed stands following somewhat dovish FOMC minutes. In the UK, Wednesday’s jobs…
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Weekly market preview – 13 October 2014
A somewhat mixed week ahead in terms of economic announcements, where the quantity of releases is negated by a lack of quality. In the US, a speech from Janet Yellen on Friday allows markets to gauge exactly where the Fed stands following somewhat dovish FOMC minutes. In the UK, Wednesday’s jobs…
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Weekly market preview – 13 October 2014
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there was no gap in views between the government and the central bank that a weak yen was positive for the world’s third-largest economy. He also appeared unfazed by recent sharp declines in global stock and crude oil prices, saying that the rise in mar…
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BOJ Kuroda says no gap in view with gov’t on weak yen benefits
Regulators in the U.S. and U.K. will carry out their first so-called war game to simulate the failure of a major cross-border bank as they test their defenses against the type of crisis that crippled the financial system in 2008. The exercise, involving Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Bank…
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U.S. and U.K. Plan Banking ‘War Game’ to Test Crisis Defenses
Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil cheap for political reasons, one analyst says. To pressure Iran to limit its nuclear program, and to change Russia’s position on Syria, Riyadh will sell oil below the average spot price at $50 to $60 per barrel in the Asian markets and North America, says Rashid Ab…
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Saudi Arabia to pressure Russia, Iran with price of oil
European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet said Friday that the volatility surrounding inflation expectations in the Eurozone requires “extra vigilance” by the Governing Council but insisted its new package of measures will deliver price stability in the medium term. In prepared rem…
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Praet: Inflation Expectations Require ‘Extra Vigilance’
The dollar’s strength may be finally irritating Washington. Earlier this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew didn’t seem all that bothered about the dollar’s recent rise. But Friday he reminded his counterparts meeting at the annual IMF and World Bank meetings here that they need to stick to …
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Dollar Strength May Be Irritating Washington
