Category Archives: Forex

BREAKING

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DIHK cuts German 2014 growth forecast to 1.3% from 2%

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, and SP500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group. EUR/USD: Still in a corrective mode. With both of the short term correction patterns (hourly triangle or flag) proven obsolete by the 1.2693 violation our fo…

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Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, SP500 – SEB

sees a calm opening on European market after test results; Speaking on BBG tv and also had this to say at the week-end; I fancy opening a book on how many times I’ll type “stress tests” today;

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BUBA’s Dombret says its unrealistic to expect an immediate in bank lending after stress tests

Squeezed between cut-throat competition from online financing firms and rising funding costs, China’s midsize banks are falling out of investors’ favor as they increasingly lag behind the country’s top five lenders. While margins generated from lending have remained broadly stable at the larger b…

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Online financing, rising costs squeeze profits at China’s midsize banks

Brazilian markets were all over the place in the final days before yesterday’s vote, soaring one moment and plunging the next. Now that the votes have been counted and President Dilma Rousseff has begun celebrating in Brasilia, here are some tips on how to make money in her second term, courtesy…

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Six Ways to Play Brazilian Markets After Rousseff Victory

No great shocks there. It took them long enough to complete these ones . But they certainly shouldn’t take their foot off the pedal; ECB’s Noyer speaking to Les Echos; level of mobilization needed for the stress tests would be difficult to repeat regularly some banks will want to comm…

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ECB’s Noyer says bank stress tests would be hard to repeat regularly

The European Central Bank has just published the results of new “stress tests” on European Union banks, hoping to convince financial markets that the banking system is now strong enough to weather another crisis. This latest exercise is a big improvement over previous efforts, which were widely…

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Europe’s Banks Are Still a Threat

The Ifo Business Climate Indicator for Germany is a key release for today’s Eurozone economic news. Later, we’ll see another early estimate of the October macro profile in the US via the flash data for the services sector purchasing managers’ index. …

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3 Numbers: Decline in German business sentiment, US services, US homes

In my formative years, inflation was the enemy. Oil shocks and improper monetary policy pushed the price level ahead at an unacceptable rate. The consequence was an extended period of underperformance, which required radical measures to reverse. Some think that inflation has become the enemy ag…

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Inflation is falling, but it won’t go through the floor

Should we be worried that China’s prodigious foreign-exchange accumulation has gone into reverse? Last week, China’s forex regulator reassured markets that there was no need to worry about a $100 billion fall in reserves in the third quarter — the largest such drop since 1996. China’s foreign res…

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What next after China’s foreign-reserve fall?

The past two months have been challenging for stock market investors. The S&P 500 quickly tumbled 9.8% from its Sept. 19 all-time high of 2,019 to as low as 1,820 on Oct. 15. Because of the way our brains work, most of us worried about the possibility that this correction was turning into an outr…

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If You Missed The Rally, Then You Just Made The Most Classic Mistake In Investing

Whilst USDJPY remains within a new trading range the near-term momentum favours the bulls. The Bullish Hammer two weeks ago may have market the end of the correction from the 111 highs. However a slight cause for concern is that USDJPY has a tendency to shift between trading ranges in very clear…

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USDJPY: Above 107.40 targets 108.70

THE announcement this week that China’s economy had grown by 7.3% in the third quarter year-on-year was widely seen as marking the country’s “new normal” of slower growth. It was well below the roughly 10% pace China had averaged from 1980 until two years ago. Yet according to a new working paper by…

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Why The Chinese Economy Can’t Defy The Odds Forever

Asian equities rose on Monday, taking heart from upbeat earnings and economic data that eased recent global growth fears and sharpened risk appetite, while the dollar advanced to a three-week high against the yen. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.3…

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Asia rises as upbeat earnings, data, boost risk appetite

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is bullish the USD and long the greenback against both the AUD and NZD. BofA is also looking to initiate a short EUR/USD position. Beginning with AUD/USD, BofA thinks that the consolidation since early Oct is drawing to a conclusion and the larger bear trend is ab…

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Short AUD/USD, NZD/USD; Looking To Sell EUR/USD Bounces – BofA Merrill

Earlier I posted FOMC statement previews from Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch economists. Here is what I expect on Wednesday: • The FOMC will announce the end of QE3. • The FOMC statement will be shorter. Here is the September statement (895 words). Last year, in September 2013, the statement …

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FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement

If and how increased uncertainty may trigger recessions 1, lower the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, and stifle subsequent recoveries is the main object of a new ‘uncertainty literature’ surveyed in Bloom (2014). The authors typically point to time-varying volatility of both aggregate…

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What drives micro and macro volatility?

The week ahead is eventful. Investors have learned the results of review and stress test of European banks. The Federal Reserve meets, as do three other central banks (Bank of Japan, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Important elections are underway in Ukraine and Brazil. I…

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Eventful Week Ahead for the Dollar

Even in this bull market, all good things must come to an end. The Federal Reserve is expected to close a chapter in history this week and announce the conclusion of its massive stimulus program. Known as quantitative easing, the program is widely credited with driving investors back into stocks …

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Fed set to finally get out of the market

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, closing at 0.8786. There are just four events this week, highlighted by PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data met expectations and the RBA minutes showed highlighted continuing conc…

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AUD/USD Forecast October 27-31