One subpar jobs report is cause for pause. But two in a row is reason to worry. Don’t worry, most economists say. They expect the U.S. to bounce back in September with a 200,000- plus net gain in jobs. And they predict the disappointing 142,000 preliminary increase in August will be revised marke…
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Big rebound seen for U.S. jobs growth
The end of the Great Recession has rekindled optimism about the future of US manufacturing. In the second quarter of 2010 the number of US workers employed in manufacturing registered positive growth – its first increase since 2006 – and subsequently recorded ten consecutive quarters of job gains,…
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The rise of China and the future of US manufacturing
The bullion market didn’t perform well again last week: Silver lost 1.7% off its value, while the price of gold inched down by 0.1%. As a result, the gold to silver ratio rose again by 1.6% to around the 70 mark – its highest level in years. This high ratio means silver’s relative price is very low…
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Gold and Silver Forecast for September 29- October 3
Italian PM Renzi interviewed on RAI television: •Italian GDP may contract as much as 0.3% in 2014 •Reiterates no new taxes •Italy setting aside eu1.5b for support to fired workers •His government plans to reduce number of labor laws, Italy needs needs simple, open, flexible labor ma…
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Italian PM Renzi interview – Italian GDP may contract as much as 0.3% in 2014
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said the United States risks falling behind the curve on inflation as wage pressure starts to bubble in some parts of the country. “I think we could suddenly get a patch of high growth, see some wage price inflation,” Fisher said on th…
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Fed hawk Fisher says US risks falling behind curve on inflation
The key event in the week ahead is the ECB meeting. The ECB surprised many in early September by cutting key interest rates. We had anticipated it because although Draghi had indicated their rate policy had been exhausted, he acknowledged there some still scope for technical adjustments. We had…
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Event Risks in the Week Ahead
On one side of the Atlantic they’re trying to refill the punchbowl. On the other they’re getting ready to take it away. This week, investors may get a clearer idea why. The European Central Bank will spell out on Thursday its latest attempt to steer the euro zone away from the prospect of damagin…
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While ECB struggles, Fed sees recovery
EUR/USD continued deteriorating and broke down to the lowest levels since November 2012. Is it getting close to the bottom or can we expect more falls? The keys are in the hand of Mario Draghi. Apart from the ECB meeting, we have inflation numbers as well as PMIs and other events . Here is an…
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EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 29 – Oct. 3
EUR/USD continued deteriorating and broke down to the lowest levels since November 2012. Is it getting close to the bottom or can we expect more falls? The keys are in the hand of Mario Draghi. Apart from the ECB meeting, we have inflation numbers as well as PMIs and other events . Here is an…
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EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 29 – Oct. 3
The dollar is staging an advance of a duration and magnitude that has not been seen for several years. The pace has taken many unaware, even though dollar bulls have been repeatedly frustrated. For several quarters, investors, analysts and reporters struggled to explain why the euro in particular…
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Near-Term Dollar Outlook
In a dramatic stroke of luck for the Kremlin, this morning there is hardly a person in the world who is happier than Russian president Vladimir Putin because overnight state-run run OAO Rosneft announced it has discovered what may be a treasure trove of black oil, one which could boost Russia’s…
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Russia Discovers Massive Arctic Oil Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of Mexico
The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index likely fell 0.1% on the month, pushing down YoY growth to 1.4%. Core (excluding food and energy) PCE likely was flat and softened to a 1.4% YoY growth rate. PCE growth likely declined in line with the 0.2% fall in August top-line CPI. We…
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US Week Ahead: NFP, ISM, Trade Balance, PCE Deflator, Factory Orders, Cons Conf, Housing
The US dollar had another superb week, crushing its peers. A rate decision in the euro-zone, US Consumer confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and of course the all-important NFP report are among the top tier events that await us as we enter a new quarter. These are the major events on Forex calendar….
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Forex Weekly Outlook Sep 29-Oct 3
The ECB’s Governing Council will hold its monthly meeting in Naples on Thursday, against a macro-financial backdrop that remains highly challenging despite its best efforts in recent months. We forecast headline HICP inflation to reach a new cycle low (and trough) of 0.3% YoY in September with both…
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Europe Week Ahead: ECB, EZ Inflation Data, EZ PMIs, UK PMIs
The first week of the month means one thing, and that is the return of fundamental risk driven by notable data and central bank releases. In the US, we are expecting to see the week dominated by employment data, starting with the ADP figure, culminating in Fridays unemployment rate and non-farm…
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Weekly market preview – 29 September 2014
Succinct Summations week ending September 26th Positives: 1. New home sales came in at 504k vs expectations of 430k which was the biggest beat relative to expectations since May 2010. 2. Core durable goods rose by 0.7%, the plunge in headline orders was not unexpected. 3. China’s…
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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.26.14
The dollar posted an 11th straight week of gains against a basket of major currencies on Friday, extending the longest winning streak since its 1971 free float under President Richard Nixon. The dollar index got extra lift from upwardly revised U.S. gross domestic product data, adding 0.5 percent…
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U.S. growth drives dollar to 11th winning week
TABLES
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Traders in Financial Futures – Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2014
This week’s extraordinary stock market volatility is just a harbinger of things to come. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +0.38% daily change each day this week, for example, has been in the triple digits. The CBOE’s Volatility Index VIX, -0.83% closed Thursday more than 30% higher than…
Never mind that Europe’s leaders haven’t done nearly enough to ensure the viability of the euro. Judging from the flows of money across the region’s borders, people are regaining faith that the currency union will hold together. Back in the darkest days of the European financial crisis, hundreds …
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Europe’s Rebalancing Act
