The German Finance Ministry monthly report is out, with headline info on it crossing on the Bloomberg: •Underlying growth ‘still intact’ een though the economy shrank 0.2% in Q2 •‘Moderate’ GDP growth can be expected in H2 provided geopolitical risks don’t escalate •Moderate CPI developments – do…
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German Finance Ministry monthly report – tax revenue rising, moderate GDP growth expected
Consumer sentiment shifted down a gear in the September quarter, on the back of less exuberant economic news, rising interest rates and, possibly, a bout of uncertainty ahead of the election. For retailers, a drop in confidence can often herald challenging times ahead. But the shift might n…
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From a boil to a simmer
When Ryan Johnson invested his life savings three years ago, he was promised fail-safe returns of at least 7pc a month, tax free, on any investment above £6,000. …
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Currency ‘fund’ that cost me £50,000
Ukraine’s truce was tested by battles between government forces and separatists as Russia’s opposition held a peace march to protest President Vladimir Putin’s policy in the neighboring country. The government in Kiev and the rebels traded accusations of cease-fire violations even after they agre…
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Ukraine Clashes Test Truce as Russian Oppositon Protests
The New Zealand dollar has edged up this morning after a National Party election victory described by one economist as the most “market-friendly” outcome. The kiwi was up US0.26c to US81.5c in early trading just after 7.30am and was up A0.22c to A91.21c at that time. Saturday’s election saw Na…
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‘Market-friendly’ election boosts kiwi
USDJPY has been on a tear in recent weeks. Since China unleashed QE-lite, JPY and CNY have greatly diverged with USDJPY breaking above 109 and pushing six-year highs. This recent ‘relative strength’ is the most extreme overbought for the currency pair since early 2001 – which saw USDJPY plunge 30%…
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USDJPY Opens At 6-Year Highs, Extreme ‘Relative Strength’ Signals 30% Drop Potential
USDJPY has been on a tear in recent weeks. Since China unleashed QE-lite, JPY and CNY have greatly diverged with USDJPY breaking above 109 and pushing six-year highs. This recent ‘relative strength’ is the most extreme overbought for the currency pair since early 2001 – which saw USDJPY plunge 30%…
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USDJPY Opens At 6-Year Highs, Extreme ‘Relative Strength’ Signals 30% Drop Potential
Canada won’t make any sudden changes to the country’s system of housing finance, even as the government looks at ways to reduce its role in the market, Finance Minister Joe Oliver said. Oliver said that while he’s studying proposals, such as the idea of the government passing on more risk to lend…
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Oliver Says Canada Won’t Make Major House Finance Changes
It seems European banks are not all that eager to take up more central bank credit. The ECB has begun to offer its dirigiste “targeted long term refinancing operations” at a spread of 10 basis points above the repo reference rate. Since the repo rate was lowered from 0.15% to 0.05% at the last ECB…
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Why ECB’s TLTRO Fizzled: European Balance Sheets Are Saturated With Debt Already
It seems European banks are not all that eager to take up more central bank credit. The ECB has begun to offer its dirigiste “targeted long term refinancing operations” at a spread of 10 basis points above the repo reference rate. Since the repo rate was lowered from 0.15% to 0.05% at the last ECB…
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Why ECB’s TLTRO Fizzled: European Balance Sheets Are Saturated With Debt Already
EUR/USD failed to recover, and eventually fell to a new 14 month low. Is this the pair set to continue declining? A speech by Mario Draghi, PMIs and an important German survey are the highlights. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on…
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EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 22-26
EUR/USD failed to recover, and eventually fell to a new 14 month low. Is this the pair set to continue declining? A speech by Mario Draghi, PMIs and an important German survey are the highlights. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on…
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EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 22-26
Technically, the dollar is finishing the quarter on strong footing. It has risen against all the major currencies. The New Zealand dollar has eclipsed the yen as the weakest of the major currencies. It is off 7% since end of June. The Canadian dollar is strongest of the majors, losing only 2.7%, and…
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Technical Outlook for the Dollar
Financial leaders of the Group of 20 top economies remain committed to chasing higher global growth, but were divided on how to achieve it as Germany pushed back at calls from the United States and others for more immediate stimulus. Opening a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers…
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As G20 chases growth goal, members differ on how to get there
Prime Minister John Key is set to lead New Zealand for a third consecutive term after his National Party won 48% of the vote in Saturday’s election. Official results show Mr. Key’s party will likely end up with 61 seats in a 121-member Parliament. While the National Party may be able to gove…
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New Zealand Prime Minister John Key Wins Third Term
Currencies are back on the G-20 agenda as diverging monetary policies from the U.S. to Japan threaten to increase exchange-rate volatility. Foreign-exchange “coordination” will be reflected in tomorrow’s communique in Cairns, Australia, echoing a pledge by Group-of-20 economies in July 2013 in M…
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Currencies Back on Agenda as G-20 Monetary Policies Split
We expect August existing home sales to rise 0.6% to a 5.18M unit rate, maintaining their upward climb. We expect existing home sales to maintain their uptrend in August. While sales have been advancing since April, they remain 4.3% below last summer’s peak. Traditional 30-year fixed mortgage rates…
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US Week Ahead: Durable Goods, GDP, UMich Sent, Housing
The dollar had another positive week, advancing against most currencies on the background of the the FOMC meeting. The upcoming week features Mario Draghi’s speech, German Ifo Business Climate, US New Home Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, among other events. Here is an outlook on the major events…
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Forex Weekly Outlook Sep. 22-26
Higher levels of student debt will reduce U.S. home sales by around 8% this year, according to a report released Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an advisory firm. The paper examines the impact of student debt on purchase activity for households under age 40. Those households account …
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Student Debt Could Reduce Home Sales 8% This Year, Report Says
It will take time for European markets to fully digest this week’s events. Leaving aside the repercussions of Scotland’s No vote, the frustratingly low take-up for ECB’s first TLTRO (EUR82.6bn to be allotted to 255 participating banks) will do little to ease concerns over the risks to the broader…
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Europe Week Ahead: EZ Flash PMI Releases, German IFO
