Will Crude Hold The $80 Price?

Last week crude oil futures (CLZ14:NYM) tested and found support twice at the $80.00 area, then proceeded to bounce  to the $85 handle before resuming selling pressure this week. What I want to look at today is the Nadex Daily Crude Oil (Dec) $80.00 binary option, based on the CLZ4, which will expire today at 2:30 EST.  When CLZ4 trades again to $80, this option will be trading at or near $50.00.  If I believe that crude will hold that level into the close, I want to buy that option at a price of $50.00 or lower; What either trade offers me is a 1:1 risk versus reward; I will reach maximum profit on this trade if either CLZ4.NYMEX closes today at 2:30 EST above the $80.00 price (if I buy the option), or if the CLZ4.NYMEX closes below the $80.00 price (if I short the option).

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Will Crude Hold The $80 Price?