Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Daily Forecast – 17 June 2013 Silver Spot XAGUSD Silver is mostly just moving sideways. Fibonacci support at 21.83 & then at 21.46/41 which could hold the downside today. A break lower looks unlikely but could target 21.19, possibly 20.98 but we expect to see a bounce from here. If we can hold above 21.90 a move back up towards 22.10/20 is likely. Look for a selling opportunity here but shorts need stops above 22.45 as a break higher could target 22.60/70.

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Silver Spot XAGUSD, Copper CME, Corn CME

Resistance: 95.08 strong / 96.38 moderate / 97.39 minor Support: 94.07 moderate / 92.78 minor / 91.76 minor USDJPY has a bearish bias though 4-Hour charts has formed a bullish reversal pattern Morning Star (Doji). With a strong resistance at 95.08, the Pivot Point, just ahead of the pattern the preferred course of action is to wait for a push past 95.08 before buying. Immediate target is 96.38 then on to 97.39. Stops should be placed below the patterns low.

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USDJPY Morning Star (Doji) 4-Hour Chart

Daily Forecast – 14 June 2013 Copper CME July contract Copper ran out of steam as expected & broke 320 to retest this week’s low of 316.30. This held & we shot higher to our resistance at 321.90/322.50. This is holding the move nicely but today’s outlook is more positive so a break higher is possible & could reach our next target of 325.20/30, may be as far as 327.00/25. We could expect a high for the day here so exit longs & try shorts with stops above 328.25. Failure to beat

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Copper CME, Corn CME, Silver Spot XAGUSD

Daily Forecast – 14 June 2013 Natural Gas July contract Natural Gas did retest this week’s low of 3.716/710 & held. We beat resistance at 3.790/810 to top out just below 3.870/880 which was predicted to hold the topside. It looks like we have seen the end of the correction now. We should be able to beat the 100 day moving average at 3.820 today to test 3.850. A break above here is very possible & could target trend line resistance at 3.905. We should struggle here so watch for sellers

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Natural Gas

Market Review Yesterday saw a continuation of the S&P’s recent downward trend with little macro news to generate any buying power. We are into the thick of the roll over period and also the dollar index broke below its 200 DMA, which were both forces that added pressure on the downside for the S&P index throughout the US session. Our short entry level was at 1639.75 and the index came within 6 ticks of this level just after the cash open before the market then trended strongly lower

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We can expect some US dollar upside

Review Right now Japan is pivotal for the financial market. Overnight Nikkei fell once again. At the time of writing this, Nikkei is down by no less than 5%, and for a while it was down by almost 7%. But not only the equity market is caving in. USDJPY is now down by almost 9% since 23 May. The trigger for the steep decline is Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and his speech on 22 May where he stated that the Fed sees a growing probability that it will be begin to reduce its monthly QE earlier than

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Japan sets the agenda

Resistance: 0.9272 strong / 0.9322 moderate / 0.9399 minor Support: 0.9194 moderate / 0.9144 minor / 0.9067 minor USDCHF is in a bear market in 4-Hour charts. We have a high level bearish pattern in the Evening Star (Doji) confirming market direction though proximity to a moderate support at 0.9194 suggests we should look for prices to push under said level before jumping in. Immediate target for sells will be 0.9144 then possibly a push on to 0.9067. Stops should be placed above the pattern

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USDCHF Evening Star (Doji) 4-Hour Chart

Review Equities: Red figures across the board. The 33 leading equity indices (covering practically the entire world) displayed on my screen are all in negative territory. From -0.68 in Australia to -3.01 in Brazil. Whether this is the beginning of a major correction or the final capitulation after a minor setback is difficult to ascertain at this point in time. However, it is an important signal because it adds to the risk aversion and hence the volatility that we have seen over the past

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Buy NOK

Resistance: 0.9446 strong / 0.9497 moderate / 0.9532 minor Support: 0.9411 moderate / 0.9359 minor / 0.9324 minor We have a Three Inside Up in AUDUSD 4-Hour charts suggesting a possible bounce in prices.

Daily Forecast – 12 June 2013 USDJPY USDJPY topped exactly at the resistance of 99.30/40 as expected but has now broken our lower support at 97.30/10. We should now see 96.28 tested & a break lower does look likely. We could then reach 95.55 but we cannot rule out a test of last week’s low of 94.99. Resistance at 97.00/10 could hold the topside with a push higher looking unlikely but if seen could see us reach 97.70/80. Above here 98.30/40 should offer a selling opportunity.

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USDJPY, Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, Kospi

Review Japan: The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged; also, it did not announce further easing measures. The reason why this decision disappointed the market a bit was that it had expected at least that the BoJ would expand the period for its purchases. On the whole, it seems that the BoJ is quite happy about the initiatives it has launched and that it will allow the economy to incorporate the easing measures. For the second time, the BoJ raised its expectations of economic growth in 2013.

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Buy AUDUSD due to oversold level

Review Japan: The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged; also, it did not announce further easing measures. The reason why this decision disappointed the market a bit was that it had expected at least that the BoJ would expand the period for its purchases. On the whole, it seems that the BoJ is quite happy about the initiatives it has launched and that it will allow the economy to incorporate the easing measures. For the second time, the BoJ raised its expectations of economic growth in 2013.

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Buy AUDUSD due to oversold level

Review Japan: The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged; also, it did not announce further easing measures. The reason why this decision disappointed the market a bit was that it had expected at least that the BoJ would expand the period for its purchases. On the whole, it seems that the BoJ is quite happy about the initiatives it has launched and that it will allow the economy to incorporate the easing measures. For the second time, the BoJ raised its expectations of economic growth in 2013.

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Buy AUDUSD due to oversold level