Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Review Japan: The BoJ kept its interest rate unchanged; also, it did not announce further easing measures. The reason why this decision disappointed the market a bit was that it had expected at least that the BoJ would expand the period for its purchases. On the whole, it seems that the BoJ is quite happy about the initiatives it has launched and that it will allow the economy to incorporate the easing measures. For the second time, the BoJ raised its expectations of economic growth in 2013.

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Buy AUDUSD due to oversold level

Market Review Friday’s session was of course dominated by the Labour market news from the US which came in at a slightly better than expected 175k. Essentially this was a perfect number from a stock market perspective as this economic news is sufficiently strong enough to indicate that underlying economic conditions are still improving but at not quite the rate that would persuade the Fed to begin tapering off QE. Markets were nervous going into the data, given the weak labour market data

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Crude oil had the most volatile reaction with initially a $1.5 sell off

Review The US: Non-Farm-Payroll offered a positive surprise. Nonfarm payrolls came out at 175,000 while 163,000 had been expected. Immediately the equity market and USD increased. US interest rates rose a tad, which leads us to believe that USD offers further potential from the current level. CHF: The SNB’s currency reserves came out at the highest level ever. It is, however, important to bear in mind that this was caused by the technical valuation of the currency reserves and not because the

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Sell EURSEK and EURUSD

Market Review – 08/06/2013 01:30GMT Dollar rises broadly on short covering after U.S. jobs data The greenback rebounded strongly against other currencies on Friday as the report showed the U.S. jobs creation was in modest pace, supporting market speculation that the Fed may begin to taper its asset purchases some time possibly in September. Versus the Japanese yen, the pair went through a volatile session Friday. Although the greenback recovered from Thursday’s low at 95.90 to 97.52 in Asian

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Dollar rises broadly on short covering after U.S. jobs data : June 10. 2013

Review The UK: The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 0.5% and did not add new purchases to its programme of asset purchases. The reason for this is that the UK has seen a couple of improved economic indicators, including GDP and PMI data. This was King’s last meeting as chairman of the interest-rate committee; the new chairman will be Caney (former governor of the Bank of Canada). We do not expect any changes in the policy to be pursued by the central bank until a couple of

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Sell EURUSD

1minute with ForexSurvivor

Daily Forecast – 07 June 2013 USDJPY USDJPY retested this week’s low of 98.90/80. This remains good support & should offer a second buying opportunity as stated yesterday, with stops needed below 98.50. We are looking for a move higher towards 99.54 & possibly as far as 99.95/100 today. Watch for a high for the day here but if we continue higher look for 100.32 & then strong resistance at 100.65/75 which should a bounce at this stage.

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USDJPY, Kospi, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Topix

Review The US: Fed member Fisher has stated that he prefers that the Fed ends QE as soon as possible. Hence the Fed members still advocate an end to QE, and therefore the unemployment and inflation developments in the US become increasingly important. This means, for instance, that the Non-Farm Payroll data to be announced on Friday will be an important signal for USD, in general, as well as for EURUSD. A figure above 200,000 will trigger heavy demand for USD. Australia: The trade balance

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Sell EURCHF in anticipation of rising volatility

Resistance: 0.7985 strong/0.8043 moderate/0.8119 minor Support: 0.7910 moderate/0.7852 minor/0.7777 minor Market bias for NZDUSD is bearish with prices under a strong resistance at 0.7985. 4-Hour candlesticks however have a mid level reversal pattern, Bullish Engulfing. Look for a close above the Pivot Point, 0.7985, for a run to 0.8043 with stop losses just below the patterns low. Break of 0.8043 could lead to a market rally for 0.8119.

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NZDUSD Bullish Engulfing 4-Hour Chart

DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK – 130.28 06 Jun 2013 07:11GMT Euro’s intra-day strg rebound fm a fresh 3-week low at 129.44 (AUS) suggests recent decline fm 133.82 (May) has made a temp. low, a firm break abv 130.30 needed to bring stronger retrace. to 130.65, however, reckon 131.00 wud hold n yield retreat. Trade fm short side n below 129.81 wud signal recovery is over, bring weakness twd 129.44. STRATEGY : Hold short POSITION : Short at 130.25 OBJECTIVE : 129.45 STOP-LOSS : 130.35 RES

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DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK : June 6, 2013

Daily Forecast – 06 June 2013 Topix June contract Topix tried a break of 1138 reaching 1140 but quickly sold off. We collapsed very sharply towards this week’s low of 1076 but are just holding on. We are oversold on the daily chart so could hope for a second bounce but below here we have strong weekly Fibonacci support at 1068 & we should bottom out. However if we continue lower look for a test of March highs & the 100 day moving average at 1058/58. If we manage a bounce as hoped, look

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Topix, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng, HSCEI, USDJPY, Kospi , Nikkei 225

Daily Forecast – 06 June 2013 Topix June contract Topix tried a break of 1138 reaching 1140 but quickly sold off. We collapsed very sharply towards this week’s low of 1076 but are just holding on. We are oversold on the daily chart so could hope for a second bounce but below here we have strong weekly Fibonacci support at 1068 & we should bottom out. However if we continue lower look for a test of March highs & the 100 day moving average at 1058/58. If we manage a bounce as hoped, look

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Topix, FTSE China A50, Hang Seng, HSCEI, USDJPY, Kospi , Nikkei 225

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NZDUSD Compels One Way Ticket, Deepening the South

Review: Australia: After its interest rate meeting, Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) announced overnight that it kept is interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. The RBA will in particular keep an eye on inflation to see whether it falls a bit more – and in that case the central bank will lower its interest rate again. The RBA is satisfied about the policy pursued, but emphasises that it still finds the exchange rate too high, particularly when considering that commodity prices have fallen extensively.

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Sell EURTRY and buy AUDUSD

INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY OUTLOOK -131.15 04 Jun 2013 07:25GMT Euro’spresent retreat after intra-day rally fm

Market Review Last week the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive down week which is something that has not happened since the first half of November 2012. The Japanese pullback continues to be the main driver of this risk off phase with the Nikkei 225 coming heavily off its recent highs as Abenomics loses some momentum and JGB yields edge higher. The move lower is also being driven rather ironically by strong economic data from the US with Friday seeing a very strong Chicago PMI release

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UK manufacturing activity picks up

Daily Forecast – 04 June 2013 USDJPY USDJPY edging towards a test of support at the April high of 99.95. We are oversold short term & getting quite oversold also on the daily chart so we could see a bounce from here. However on a break lower, we look likely to test the next support at 98.83 & a buying opportunity here this week. May be wise to exit shorts & try longs but we need stops below 98.50. Immediate resistance at 100.70/90 could hold the topside but above here we meet

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USDJPY, Kospi, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, FTSE China A50, Topix