Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Daily Forecast – 03 June 2013 USDJPY USDJPY was unable to beat 101.70 as feared as we tested 100.30. This week we have support down to the April high of 99.95 but below here we look likely to test the next support at 98.83 & a buying opportunity here this week. We should start to look oversold on the daily chart at this stage so a low for the week is possible but longs need stops below 98.50. Immediate resistance at 101.05 then 101.60/80 where we should struggle. Watch for a high for the

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USDJPY, Topix, Hang Seng, Hang Seng CE Index, Kospi, Nikkei 225, FTSE China A50

Resistance: 0.9569 strong / 0.9611 moderate / 0.9693 minor Support: 0.9487 moderate / 0.9445 minor / 0.9363 minor Market bias for USDCHF is bearish with prices under a strong resistance level at 0.9569 the Pivot Point. Given that Bullish Harami is a low level bullish reversal pattern it is necessary to look for a close above the strong resistance first before taking action. Immediate objective when taking a buy should be a push for 0.9611 break of which opens 0.9693, a stop loss should be

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USDCHF Bullish Harami 4-Hour Chart

Market Review Yesterday, we saw once again a difficult and choppy session with no overall direction seen in major asset classes. The markets seem to be dealing with the prospect of potential reduced monetary support as they consolidate at current levels. Looking back on the week as a whole for the S&P500, on Tuesday we moved higher from 1644.25 to breach 1672.50, and at the time of typing now we currently trade at 1644.25, showing no overall direction this week. Yesterday’s strategy in the

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The markets seem to be dealing with the prospect of potential reduced monetary support

Review: The US: GDP was revised down by 0.1 to 2.4% and the weekly jobless claims rose. The development of the economic indicators was bad news to USD, and when USD was sold at month-end flow, EUR moved in to positive territory. EURUSD rose by more than one percentage from low to high. Japan: The economic indicators released overnight offered marginally good news . Particularly industrial production offered a positive surprise. Nikkei and USDJPY trade in positive territory. We expect that the

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Sell EURCHF and buy EURPLN, EURUSD

Daily Forecast – 31 May 2013 Eurostoxx June contract Euro Stoxx got closer to 2768/62 support which held as hoped & we bounced from 2771. Resistance at 2810 then held the bounce & could do so again today with the outlook still negative. Below 2800 look for 2889/86 & then 2768/62 which remains good support & could hold the downside again today. A break lower certainly cannot be ruled out though for a test of last week’s low & the March high at 2751/47. This should hold the

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Eurostoxx, Dax, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, EURUSD

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Market Review Yesterday saw a strange mix of movement in terms of asset class correlations as we general saw risk-off with equity markets edging lower but this was accompanied by US dollar weakness and at least initially bond market weakness as well. Our short S&P strategy was just a whisker away from a fill before a push down to the low of the day at 1638. It was a similar story with the EURUSD as we expected a test of key resistance at 1.30 before the retracement but the move higher ran

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Dollar reverses gains as havens rise

Daily Forecast – 31 May 2013 USDJPY USDJPY held resistance at 102.56 as expected where we advised to exit longs & try shorts. We then tested good support at 100.70 & held above 100.30 to ensure longs here were not stopped out. We have bounced now to 101.70 & could struggle here so worth profit taking on at least some longs, but if we continue higher look for resistance at 102.50 again. Exit remaining longs as this could hold the topside but above here look for the next resistance

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USDJPY, Kospi, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Topix, Hang Seng CE Index

Review: Sweden: Surprising GDP GDP came to 0.6% – while 0.3% had been expected. Y/y the increase was 1.7% against the expected 1.4%. Hence, GDP was a positive surprise, which made SEK increase by more than half a point. If we look at the sub-components we are slightly more reluctant, as the reason behind the rise in net exports is based on a more significant decline in imports than exports. In addition, industrial inventories are increasing and corporate investments are falling. These are all

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EURPLN – From Sell to Buy

Resistance: 1.0372 strong/1.0399 moderate/1.0447 minor Support: 1.0323 moderate/1.0296 minor/1.0248 minor Dragonfly Doji (Bear) is just under the pivot point in USDCAD Hourly charts, a moderate bearish pattern below a strong resistance. Given proximity to 1.0372, we can consider shorts under the said price with stops placed above the Pivot Point for a low risk-high reward trade. Immediate objective is 1.0323 then on to 1.0296 break of which gives us a run on the market.

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USDCAD Dragonfly Doji (Bear) Hourly Chart

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Daily Forecast – 30 May 2013 Dax June contract Dax fell all the way to our lower target of 8320 & held here. However the outlook remains negative & a break lower is possible today. This should target good Fibonacci support at 8292. We should look for a bounce from here but we certainly cannot rule out a break lower so we need tight stops below last week’s low of 8260. Next target 8235 & possibly 8217/10. Resistance at 8395 then 8412/25. We should struggle here but a break higher

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Dax, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, E-Mini Dow Jones, EURUSD

Review: Japan: April retail sales rose by 0.7% against the expected level of 0.2%. The change in retail sales has now been positive over the past 2 quarters, and also personal consumption has risen steadily – on the whole positive signals in respect of PM Abe’s aggressive monetary policy. BoJ: Central bank governor Kuroda states that the next step on behalf of the Bank of Japan is to secure a stable financial market so also Japanese interest rates come under control. USDJPY & EURJPY

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US interest rates cause USD to rise

Daily Forecast – 29 May 2013 Eurostoxx June contract Euro Stoxx caught us out with a break of 2832/38 highs but we only made it to 2849. We fell back sharply to 2819 & if we hold below 2824 today look for 2810. Below here we meet good support at 2798/95 with a low for the day possible. However we need stops on longs below 2785 for 2768/62 & a buying opportunity. Above 2825/30 we could try for yesterday’s high of 2846/49. Good chance of a top here again but if we continue higher look

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Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, Dax, EURUSD, E-Mini Dow Jones, E-Mini S&P

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Market Review Yesterday was a US bank holiday which was a very much required day off after a tumultuous end to last week. In a shortened session the E-mini S&P found resistance at Friday’s high and posted a minor up day but in truth was just another consolidation day after the large pullback on Wednesday/Thursday last week. The same goes for EURUSD, T-Notes and Crude as price action was very contained due to very low holiday volumes. Today’s Fundamental View Earlier today the Nikkei 225

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EURUSD has been following stocks higher this morning

AUDJPY (BUY): We recommend BUY AUDJPY; T/P at 99.50; S/L at 96.79. As appears from the chart, there is a well-established support level for AUDJPY at 96.88. The cross rate has fallen by 8% in a little more than a month, and several technical indicators are beginning to signal that a correction is in the offing. Since yesterday, the cross rate has traded up by 1.2%. If the market reaches 99, we recommend that investors move S/L to 98.74. We think that in the long term, AUD will weaken further,

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Range trading offers opportunities