Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Economic indicators from the US are the most important economic indicators this week Review: The ECB and the BoE delivered as expected Sweden: Shock figures for PMI service put pressure on SEK. We have for quite some time argued that investors as well as analysts were not prepared for possible negative news from Sweden. Yesterday’s shocking news in the form of PMI service (47.2 against the estimate of 54.2) had therefore a strong effect on SEK. We expect further SEK weakening – particularly

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ECB: Soft rhetoric but EUR strengthened

Market Review Yesterday’s session saw some dramatic movement particularly in the equity and commodity space. The S&P posted its third largest down day of eth year shedding over 1% as worse than excepted data finally generated a meaningful period of profit taking with the index flirting with its all time highs in recent sessions. The ADP Employment data as well as the ISM Non-Manufacturing data both came in below analyst expectations and adding in the bearish DoE crude inventory data made

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The risk-off move helped T-Notes to break up through last week’s high

Daily Forecast – 04 April 2013 Natural Gas April contract Natural Gas broke support at 3.966/961 & managed to hold just above the next support at 3.886/860. We can try longs here today & look for a bounce with the market now over sold in the short term. We need a stop below 3.833 for a test of the next support at 3.792. Resistance at 3.966 is our first obstacle on a bounce. A top here is possible today but a break above 3.991 could signal a move towards this week’s high of 4.044.

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Natural Gas, RBOB Gasoline

Review: The Bank of Japan introduces more extensive relaxation measures than expected Japan: The Bank of Japan introduces more extensive relaxation measures than expected – JPY weakens This morning, the new central-bank governor, Kuroda, and his monetary-policy colleagues managed to surprise the market. Analysts and investors had expected massive relaxation measures, but the Bank of Japan delivered more than had been expected and signalled that it is ready for more. Seen in that perspective,

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The BoJ introduces more extensive relaxation measures

GBPUSD Three Outside Down 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 1.5082 moderate/1.5120 strong/1.5165 moderate Support: 1.5037 minor/1.4999 minor The Three Outside Down in 4-Hour charts is a confirmation of the overall bearish trend for GBPUSD. With moderate resistance at 1.5082 consider shorts at market given the high credibility bearish pattern with a stop loss above it. Alternatively stops could be placed above the pattern high. Immediate objective is 1.5037, break of which opens us to a sell-off to

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GBPUSD Three Outside Down 4-Hour Chart

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AUDUSD Three Outside Up 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 1.0509 minor/1.0539 minor Support: 1.0479 moderate/1.0449 strong/1.0418 moderate AUDUSD has a bullish bias with Three Outside Up in 4-Hour charts suggesting a further push higher. As a high level pattern aggressive buys may be taken with 1.0509 as the immediate objective break of which opens the possibility of a run to 1.0539. Stop losses ideally should be placed below 1.0479. Proximity to 1.0479 would be ideal.

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AUDUSD Three Outside Up 4-Hour Chart

Market Review Cyprus slightly relaxed their capital controls yesterday as well as conclusion talks with the Troika about the specifics of the bailout deal that included a more relaxed deficit reduction schedule than had previously been indicated and this set a positive underlying sentiment in the European market particularly with equities and the main European broses posted in excess of 1% gains. However, any Euro strength was jumped on by the bears as lower than expected German inflation data

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Cyprus slightly relaxed their capital controls yesterday

Review: Weakness in Italian and Spanish economic indicators Europe: Rather mixed PMIs. The total figure for the PMI manufacturing in Europe was yesterday upgraded from 46.6 to 46.8. Unfortunately, the data from Southern Europe were weak. In Italy as well as Spain PMI manufacturing disappointed quite significantly. The market did not pay much attention to the negative signals from Europe – at least German equities closed up by 2% at the end of the day. Japan: Nikkei rose by 2.5%, but JPY was

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Investors are waiting for the Bank of Japan, the ECB and the job report from the US

Review: Weakness in Italian and Spanish economic indicators Europe: Rather mixed PMIs. The total figure for the PMI manufacturing in Europe was yesterday upgraded from 46.6 to 46.8. Unfortunately, the data from Southern Europe were weak. In Italy as well as Spain PMI manufacturing disappointed quite significantly. The market did not pay much attention to the negative signals from Europe – at least German equities closed up by 2% at the end of the day. Japan: Nikkei rose by 2.5%, but JPY was

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Investors are waiting for the Bank of Japan, the ECB and the job report from the US

Resistance: 1584.32 strong/1594.94 moderate/1614.38 minor Support: 1564.88 moderate/1554.27 minor/1534.82 minor XAUUSD is in a bear market with the low level bullish candlestick pattern Bullish Harami suggesting we look for a turn-around. Consider buys off the immediate support 1564.88, or on a bullish confirmation from the subsequent candlestick. A stop loss should be placed just below 1564.88 while the immediate target is 1584.32, the Pivot Point. A close above 1584.32 will have us looking

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XAUUSD Bullish Harami 4-Hour Chart

Resistance: 1584.32 strong/1594.94 moderate/1614.38 minor Support: 1564.88 moderate/1554.27 minor/1534.82 minor XAUUSD is in a bear market with the low level bullish candlestick pattern Bullish Harami suggesting we look for a turn-around. Consider buys off the immediate support 1564.88, or on a bullish confirmation from the subsequent candlestick. A stop loss should be placed just below 1564.88 while the immediate target is 1584.32, the Pivot Point. A close above 1584.32 will have us looking

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XAUUSD Bullish Harami 4-Hour Chart

AUDUSD Morning Star (Doji) 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 1.0479 moderate/1.0509 minor/1.0539 minor

1minute with ForexSurvivor

Market Review Yesterday’s activity was a bank holiday across Europe and so the US markets displayed low volumes. The main event was the release of the US ISM Manufacturing data for March which showed a surprisingly low 51.3 Vs the expected 54.0. The S&P spiked lower and the US dollar weakened as a result but the risk-off move was particularly short lived for the S&P and Crude as these markets stabilised and indeed crude went on to reclaim the $97 handle. The EURUSD broke above Friday’s

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The S&P spiked lower and the US dollar weakened as a result