Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Daily Forecast – 02 April 2013 Dax June contract Dax outlook is weakening & rallies now may be best used to sell in to shorts as we warned at the start of last week. Thursday’s weekly close below the 1 year up trend now adds to the negative tone. We did manage to beat 7840 on Thursday but failed at 7860/65 resistance. We should struggle here again today but if we can push higher look for 7884/88 to try shorts & add up to 7918/23, with stops above 7934. Below 7825/35 now brings us back

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Dax, Eurostoxx

Daily Forecast – 02 April 2013 Bund June contract Bund retested 145.80/82 & the major 9 month trend line. We topped at 145.87, just below the stop level of 145.90 & fell back to support at 145.48/44. The market is over bought and failed at major resistance plus it closed lower. This puts us on a negative footing for the start of this week & if we break Thursday’s low of 145.34 look for 145.12/02. We could bounce from here so may be try longs with a stop below 144.88 for 144.66 as

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Bund retested 145.80/82 & the major 9 month trend line

Review: Disappointing ISM data from the US The US: Disappointing ISM data weakened USD and strengthened JPY Yesterday’s ISM data for manufacturing in the US was quite a disappointment. Hence ISM fell from 54.2 to 51.3 (estimate: 54.0). As we stated before, for a period good US economic indicators currently benefit USD and vice versa. The main reasons for this correlation are: 1) Poor economic indicators reduce the likelihood of an early end to QE3 2) Poor economic indicators reduce the growth

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Negative sentiment – without any major market movements

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Daily Forecast – 02 April 2013 USDJPY USDJPY has come under pressure as predicted at the end of last week. We have broken 93.57/53 to test short term Fibonacci support at 93.27 & we need now to watch for a break of the 2 week low at 93.17. Stops on any longs should then be triggered & we can perhaps reverse in to shorts looking for 92.94 then 92.64 on the way to 92.35/28 and then very strong support at 92.13/09. Here we look for a potential low for the week. It should be worth exiting

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USDJPY, Nikkei 225

Market Review S&P and Crude strategies worked very well yesterday with the long entry levels providing sufficiently strong technical support to ensure that these prices were the low of the day and both markets bouncing to hit at least first profit targets. EURUSD and T-Notes strategies were not filled. Concerns over how the Cypriot capital controls may impact on the broader Eurozone banking system as well as Italian political risk and worse than expected US pending home sales meant the

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This afternoon sees the US release their weekly jobless claims numbers

Daily Forecast – 28th March 2013 Natural Gas April contract Natural Gas broke 4.050 as expected to continue the uptrend, as we look for 4.113/114 for the next upside target. Above here we look for 4.130/140. Any profit taking finds support at 4.046 today and then 4.011 below. A fall as far as 3.990 offers an excellent buying opportunity with stops needed below 3.960.

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Natural Gas, Nymex WTI Light Crude, Brent Crude

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Daily Forecast – 28th March 2013 USDJPY USDJPY has broken the 4 month up trend line today at 94.60 today and this should start to put the pair under pressure. We look for a test of the first support at 93.95 then below here we expect a test of recent lows at 93.57/53. Failure here could lead to a test of short term Fibonacci support at 93.27 which could hold losses at this stage but longs do need a stop below last week’s low at 93.17 and perhaps reverse in to shorts looking for 92.94 then

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USDJPY, XAUUSD Spot Gold

Market Review Overall our strategies worked well yesterday in that our entry levels performed well as technical reversal points but the profitability of the trades were modest as in the end the session saw most markets being confined to tight ranges. The S&P saw some upside after the US cash open and whilst the upside was capped at our short entry level the much worse than expected Consumer confidence number was not able to generate any meaningful sell off. EURUSD remained in a tight range

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Crude oil made an important test of key support at $95.65 this morning

Daily Forecast – 27th March 2013 EURUSD EURUSD held 1.2890/80 & Monday’s low at 1.2830 in the downtrend so the same levels apply for today. We run in to resistance today at 1.2890/80 but if we push through 1.2902 look for 1.2945. We can look for a top here & try selling short with a stop above 1.2970. Next resistance is at 1.3015/20 for trying shorts again. Support at 1.2845/30 but below here we could sink further to 1.2795 & then 1.2745/35. If prices were to continue lower we

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EURUSD, XAUUSD Spot Gold

Daily Forecast – 27th March 2013 Brent Crude May contract Brent Crude has formed a bullish inverse head & shoulders as hoped & we shot to our target of 109.51/71 & topped out exactly here as predicted. We now need to hold above 109.10 for a retest of 109.51/71. A break through the 200 day moving average at 109.90 is then need to reach 110.26 today. We can probably get no further at this stage but if we do push on look for our measured target of 111.20/50 as stated yesterday.

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Brent Crude, Natural Gas

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Market Review The positive market reaction to the news that Cyprus had agreed on a last minute deal to avoid bankruptcy lasted through the European morning session but it was short lived as the Dutch Finance minister Dijsselboem spooked the markets by saying that the Cypriot deal was a watershed moment in the Eurozone crisis and that from now on this bank bail in approach should be used as the template for the rest of Europe. The peripheral financials took a battering with Italian and Spanish

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Crude is the one exception

Daily Forecast – 27th March 2013 Kospi June contract Kospi pushed higher to hit resistance at 262.75/236.25 and came to a halt. We have support on the pullback at 260.96 but below here risks further losses to 259.60 then better support at 258.74/50 which should hold the downside. However a break should close the gap at 257.70/60 next. We should see a bounce from here but failure leads to a retest of 256/255 lows. If we can hold above 261 look for another test of resistance at 262.75/236.25. We

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Kospi, Nikkei 225, Topix, USDJPY