Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Forecast for 23rd January 2013 Topix March contract Topix March Futures outlook is turning more negative as we warned and prices did fall further as predicted to 896/895 support. We bottomed just below at 893 and a break below here is possible in today’s session to targets 883. Exit shorts here and buy in to longs expecting a good bounce. Stops needed below 877 for 872 and possibly a test of better support at 863/862. Resistance at 916 should continue to be a major barrier. We will need to

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Topix, Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, JGB, Spot USDJPY, Kospi, Straits Times Index

Review: EURPLN (from NEUTRAL to SELL): We recommend investors to SELL EURPLN; S/L at 421.81. Japan: The Bank of Japan announced overnight a programme of asset purchases without any scheduled ending date (open-ended QE). The programme of asset purchases will, however, not begin until January 2014, and therefore the current programme of asset purchases will lapse before the next one is initiated. The remarkable about this is, however, that the easing in 2014 is much more substantial than what is

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We recommend that investors SELL EURPLN

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The Eurostoxx opened lower yesterday but managed to shrug off the initial downside volatility, which allowed the price to grind higher throughout the session amidst broad-based low volume conditions. Our yesterday’s entry short at 2,724 was reached just before the European cash close and provided a shortterm scalping opportunity down to yesterday’s daily pivot at 2,715. The index finished the session higher on the day with a gain of 0.22%. Following the

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The EUR/USD spent yesterday’s session within a tight range

Market Review – 21/01/2013 23:11 All times in GMT Yen rises ahead of BoJ rate decision The Japanese yen strengthened against other currencies on Monday on profit-taking although the Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce to double its inflation target to 2% and increase its asset purchase program when the two-day meeting ends on Tuesday. Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rose above last Friday’s high at 90.21 to a fresh 30-month high at 90.25 in New Zealand, the pair

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Yen rises ahead of BoJ rate decision

Forecast for 22nd January 2013 Brent Crude March contract March Brent Crude has made it above 112.00 breaking the 9 month down trend as we look for the next target of 112.47. A push through here then takes us to 112.90 on the way to this month’s high at 113.29. 112.00/111.85 is support and we could hold above here today but a break lower then risks a drift lower to 111.40/35. Look for a low for the day if this level is seen to exit any shorts, buy in to small longs and average in to more longs

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Brent Crude, Gasoil ICE, Natural Gas, WTI Light Crude

Forecast for 22nd January 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD held on to the 1.3300 level and we have raced higher again. The 100 week moving average at 1.3382 could pose a problem and we have resistance again at 1.3395/1.3405 which should remain a very tough obstacle. A good chance therefore of a high for the day again if tested but if we do break above here the next target of 1.3491 should be achieved this week. 1.3310/00 is support today of course but if this is broken we should see a move towards

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Spot Euro, E-Mini S&P, Dax, DJIA, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF Last Update At 22 Jan 2013 00:16GMT Trend Daily Chart Sideways Daily Indicators Turning up 21 HR EMA 0.9344 55 HR EMA 0.9334 Trend Hourly Chart Sideways Hourly Indicators Bearish divergences 13 HR RSI 46 14 HR DMI +ve Daily Analysis Consolidation b4 upmove resumes Resistance 0.9477 – 1.618 times extension of 0.9076-0.9302 fm 0.9111 0.9418 – 38.2% r of 0.9972-0.9076 0.9389 – Last Fri’s high Support 0.9303 – Last Fri’s low 0.9287 – Last Thur’s low 0.9263 – Last

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USD/CHF Daily Technical Outlook: January 22, 2013

Forecast for 22nd January 2013 Hang Seng Jan contract Hang Seng Futures edged higher to 23644. We are extremely over bought on the weekly and daily charts and if we break the low of the last 2 sessions at 23485/455 we should fill the gap down to 23355. This could mark the low for today so watch for a bounce. However a break lower would then target 23207/23175. The highs of 23614/644 are resistance in today’s sessions with a break higher keeping the bull run alive for a move towards 23790 then

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Hang Seng, Hang Seng CE Index, Topix, Straits, Nikkei, Spot USDJPY, JGB,

Review: The US: The US consumer confidence survey UMS came out at 71.3 against the estimate of 75. The reason for the decline is that consumers are now responding to the new taxes introduced in connection with the fiscal cliff agreement in early January. And given the increasing media focus on the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff to be decided at the end of February, we expect that consumers will become increasingly hesitant over the coming months. The US: Over the weekend, the Americans most

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EURUSD gives short-term sell signal

1minute with ForexSurvivor

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review Following the strong bounce off the lows of the week on Thursday, the Eurostoxx opened at the highs of the weekly range on Friday morning and tested the high of the week before upside momentum failed. Our Friday’s strategy aimed to take advantage of range-bound conditions, aiming to enter at the double top at the highs of the week. Our entry short at 2,729 was filled during the initial hours of the trading day and our first profit target at 2,708 was

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The Bund opened marginally lower on Friday morning

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY Last Update At 20 Jan 2013 23:42GMT Trend Daily Chart Up Daily Indicators Overbought 21 HR EMA 89.90 55 HR EMA 89.60 Trend Hourly Chart Up Hourly Indicators Overbought 13 HR RSI 71 14 HR DMI +ve Daily Analysis Resumption of upmove Resistance 90.92 – 1.618 times extension of 77.13-82.84 fm 81.68 90.63 – Equality proj. of 86.83-89.67 fm 87.79 90.25 – Intra-day high Support 89.67 – Last Mon’s high 89.22 – Last Thur’s NY sup 88.80 – Last Thur’s Asian res, now sup

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USD/JPY Daily Technical Outlook: January 21, 2013

S&P 500 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review We had a long bias yesterday but in hindsight our long entry at the bottom of the recent range at 1460 turned out to be way too conservative. The S&P was sat just under Wednesday’s high at 1469 when the Dax took a spike higher and this lead to a correlated higher ahead of the US data. The Jobless Claims then came in at a five year low and the Housing starts numbers at a near five year high in a great set of data which lead the S&P to smash through

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The Jobless Claims then came in at a five year low

EUROSTOXX 50 (Mar 13) INTRADAY Review The Eurostoxx settled in the positive territory at yesterday’s close following a broad-based risk rally which encompassed strength in equities, precious metals and in the energy complex, while the dollar index settled with minor losses on the day. The Eurostoxx started the session with a flat open in the vicinity of yesterday’s close and proceeded to rally throughout the majority of the session, closing the day at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this

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The Eurostoxx settled in the positive territory at yesterday’s

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD Last Update At 18 Jan 2013 01:41GMT Trend Daily Chart Up Daily Indicators Bearish divergences 21 HR EMA 1.3353 55 HR EMA 1.3330 Trend Hourly Chart Up Hourly Indicators Rising 13 HR RSI 58 14 HR DMI +ve Daily Analysis Possible resumption of upmove Resistance 1.3486 – Feb 29 high 1.3430 – Equality projection of 1.2876-1.3308 fm 1.2998 1.3404 – Mon’s high Support 1.3334 – Y’day’s NY sup 1.3315 – Y’day’s Asian res 1.3257 – Thur’s low EUR/USD – 1.3389 … Despite

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EUR/USD Daily Technical Outlook: January 18, 2013

Forecast for 18th January 2013 Spot Euro EURUSD beat 1.3325 level however and in fact we topped out exactly here and shot back up to 1.3395/1.3405 resistance as expected. We warned this was likely to contain the upside and as predicted the high was seen at 1.3392. We have pulled back a little but it does look like we can retest 1.3395/1.3405 resistance today. Again there is a strong chance we cannot break higher but if we do break above here the next target of 1.3491 could be achieved next

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Spot Euro, Eurostoxx, Dax, FTSE 100, E-Mini S&P, DJIA