Author Archives: Trade Advantage

Resistance: 1706.71 moderate / 1713.59 minor / 1724.04 minor Support: 1696.26 strong / 1689.38 moderate / 1678.93 minor XAUUSD is generally bullish with 4-Hour Bearish (Doji) Star occurring near a strong support level at 1696.26, the Pivot Point. With the pivot directly beneath us a close under 1696.26 has to be seen before jumping short. The immediate object will be 1689.38 break of which suggest you have a tanking market with 1678.93 as its target. Stops should be placed above the Pivot

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XAUUSD Bearish (Doji) Star 4-Hour Chart

Forecast for 7th December 2012 Topix December contract Long term levels 791.7 100 week moving average 778.5 Weekly 50% Fibonacci 772.1 Daily 23.6% Fibonacci 765.1 200 day moving average 761.7 Daily38.2% Fibonacci 758.0 Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci 753.3 Daily 50% Fibonacci 744.8 Daily 61.8% Fibonacci 744.2 100 day moving average 732.6 Weekly 23.6% Fibonacci Topix Futures managed to break the November highs at 789 but failed below the 100 week MA at 791.7. As stated yesterday, it is only above here

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Topix , Hang Seng CE Index, Hang Seng, Kospi , Nikkei , Straits

Resistance: 0.9921 strong/0.9935 moderate/0.9955 minor Support: 0.9902 moderate/0.9888 minor/0.9868 minor Market bias for USDCAD is bearish with prices under a strong resistance level at 0.9921 the Pivot Point. Given that Bullish Harami is a low level bullish reversal pattern it is necessary to look for a close above the strong resistance first before taking action. Immediate objective when taking a buy should be a push for 0.9935 break of which opens 0.9955, a stop loss should be placed below

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USDCAD Bullish Harami 4-Hour Chart

S&P 500 (Dec 12) INTRADAY Review Yesterday the strategy came unstuck due to the on-going Fiscal Cliff headline risk. Boenher and his House of Representatives counterpart McConnell made statements that clearly outlines that there are still large barriers in the way of a deal on the structure of a long term fiscal adjustment programme. So, following some decent ISM Non- Manufacturing numbers the market headed south with the Fiscal Cliff comments accelerating the move down below 1400. Apple’s

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WTI Crude was as other assets somewhat on the back foot yesterday

Resistance: 0.9921 strong/0.9935 moderate/0.9955 minor Support: 0.9902 moderate/0.9888 minor/0.9868 minor USDCAD has a bearish bias though Hourly charts has formed a bullish reversal pattern Three Inside Up. With a strong resistance at 0.9921, the Pivot Point, just ahead of the pattern the preferred course of action is to wait for a push past 0.9921 before buying. Immediate target is 0.9935 then on to 0.9955. Stops should be placed below the patterns low.

Review: We have noted that interest rates in the US as well as the EU are trading more or less sideways. The reason for the hesitant trade is the ECB meeting today and that on Friday the important non-farm payroll data will be released in the US. The equity market lost momentum yesterday and fell slightly. At the same time EURUSD turned around, which happened following the poorer-than-expected Spanish auction. Poland lowered its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25%. Subsequently the central bank

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What will the ECB do?

Forecast for 6th December 2012 E-Mini S&P Long term levels 1419 2012 H1 high/Last week’s high 1412 21 week Moving Average 1409 100 day Moving Average 1394/93 Sept/Oct low 1387 July high 1383 Last week’s low 1378/81 Weekly 23.6% Fib/200 DMA 1368 Daily 50% Fib 1360/59 June high 1349 Aug low 1343 Daily 61.8% Fib 1319 Weekly 38.2% Fib S&P broke 1402 but only fell as far as 1397, not reaching 1392 support as we shot higher to test the 1414 resistance which held the topside as expected.

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E-Mini S&P, Dax, Eurostoxx, FTSE 100, Spot Euro, Schatz, Bobl, Bund, 10 Year Gilt

EUROSTOXX 50 (Dec 12) INTRADAY Review Yesterday’s opening print at 2,608 may have resulted in the triggering of tight buy stops above the high of the year. As such the index printed a new high for the year at 2,614, with the price being strongly rejected from the elevated levels. Our yesterday’s strategy neutral entry short at 2,616 was not reached on a retracement following the initial high print on the open. Due to the retracement from the lows in the afternoon session, the index closed the

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We will be looking out for the ECB rate decision

Resistance: 1695.00 strong / 1705.39 moderate / 1717.15 minor Support: 1683.24 moderate / 1672.85 minor / 1661.09 minor Three Inside Down is just under the pivot point at 1695.00 in Hourly XAUUSD charts. With a combination of a high level bearish pattern and a strong resistance consider shorting at market the immediate objective at 1683.24 break of which should see us move to 1672.85. Stop loss should be placed above 1695.00. For pattern explanation and visual identification rules, click here.

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XAUUSD Three Inside Down Hourly Chart

Forecast for 6th December 2012 Topix Long term levels 791.7 100 week moving average 778.5 Weekly 50% Fibonacci 772.1 Daily 23.6% Fibonacci 765.1 200 day moving average 761.7 Daily38.2% Fibonacci 758.0 Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci 753.3 Daily 50% Fibonacci 744.8 Daily 61.8% Fibonacci 744.2 100 day moving average 732.6 Weekly 23.6% Fibonacci Topix unable to break the November highs at 789 on several attempts since 26th which could lead to profit taking in today’s session. Below 777 we should see

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Spot Euro ,E-Mini S&P, Dax, Eurostoxx & FTSE 100

S&P 500 (Dec 12) INTRADAY Review Yesterday’s strategy was spot on – We had a short entry level at 1411.75 and so we called the top of the session to the very tick. In the main it was a fairly scrappy day and the push higher at 15.00GMT to the index up to test our entry. From there the market reversed and spent the following three hours pushing lower in a fairly erratic manner. The low of the day was put in place 4 ticks below our first profit target rounding off a good day for the

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The commodity was trending down yesterday

Review: EURUSD continues the upturn Euro has generally been in demand over the past two days. Particularly speculators have bought extensively. We expect that at a coming breach above 132, we will see additional purchases as also the fairly large hedge funds will begin to buy more euros. China: PMI service fell surprisingly to 52.1 from 53.5. The service sector is not that important in China, and therefore the announcement did not affect the market. China’s coming leader stated that China will

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Rumours send CHF lower